[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250556
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT SEP 25 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW IS CENTERED NEAR 15.5N 85.7W AT 25/0600
UTC OR ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM ESE OF LA CEIBA HONDURAS MOVING WNW
AT 13 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEE LATEST
NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
MATTHEW IS INLAND OVER HONDURAS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS
OVER NW NICARAGUA...CENTRAL HONDURAS...AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS
FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 84W-88W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN 84W-89W. MATTHEW
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS WITH TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 10 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS AND
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

HURRICANE LISA IS CENTERED NEAR 20.7N 27.9W AT 25/0300 UTC OR
ABOUT 360 NM NW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING N AT 7 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. SEE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT LISA IS A SMALL
STORM IN RELATION TO THE CONVECTION...HOWEVER IT MANAGED TO HAVE
A SMALL EYE FEATURE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 20N-22N BETWEEN 27W-29W.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ IS ANALYZED SW OF HURRICANE LISA ALONG 11N30W 10N40W
13N50W 13N60W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST
OF WEST AFRICA FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 10W-13W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN
20W-30W... AND FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 37W-44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETURN FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH
10-15 KT E FLOW. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER FLORIDA
AND THE E GULF OF MEXICO N OF 25N E OF 85W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N-28N BETWEEN 85W-97W. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 22N94W 17N92W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 17N-20N
BETWEEN 94W-97W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS CENTERED OVER S LOUISIANA NEAR 30N91W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N87W.
CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE GULF. EXPECT...MORE
TROPICAL MOISTURE AND CONVECTION TO ADVECT INTO THE SOUTHERN
GULF DUE TO MATTHEW OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW IS THE DOMINATE WEATHER PRODUCER IN THE
CARIBBEAN...SEE SURFACE FEATURES ABOVE. A BAND OF SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF MATTHEW WITHIN 30
NM EITHER SIDE OF 16N92W 19N88W 19N83W. ANOTHER BAND IS E OF
MATTHEW WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF 17N81W 13N78W 11N80W.
ELSEWHERE...CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE OVER N COLOMBIA AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM
7N-15N BETWEEN 71W-78W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG
THE COAST OF VENEZUELA FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 63W-67W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA NEAR 21N87W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER
HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N71W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS
THE CARIBBEAN W OF 65W. EXPECT...MATTHEW TO CONTINUE TO MOVE W
WITH SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 34N65W
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A 1014 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 31N45W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS
OF THE LOW. HURRICANE LISA IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC. SEE ABOVE. OF
NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS ARE A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL LOWS AT
32N72W AND 30N34W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA






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