[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240552
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI SEP 24 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW AT 24/0600 UTC IS CENTERED NEAR 14.2N
79.3W OR ABOUT 237 NM E OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA MOVING W
AT 15 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEE LATEST
NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
MATTHEW HAS A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND
ACTIVE CONVECTIVE BANDS AROUND THE PERIPHERY. NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 78W-81W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF THE LINE 15N83W 17N78W
14N74W 11N76W.

TROPICAL STORM LISA AT 24/0000 UTC IS CENTERED NEAR 18.1N 28.1W
OR ABOUT 265 NM WNW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING NNE AT 4
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEE LATEST
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/ WTNT24
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION N
OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 25W-29W.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ IS ANALYZED SW OF T.S. LISA ALONG 11N30W 14N50W 11N60W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE
COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 15W-20W. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS S OF THE ITCZ FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 26W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETURN FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH
15-20 KT SW FLOW. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER FLORIDA AND THE
CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N-28N BETWEEN 80W-98W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE HOWEVER ALONG 21N95W 17N91W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN
91W-94W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED S
OF LOUISIANA NEAR 29N90W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER
CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N80W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
COVERS THE GULF. EXPECT...MORE TROPICAL MOISTURE AND CONVECTION
TO ADVECT INTO THE GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW IS THE DOMINATE WEATHER PRODUCER IN THE
CARIBBEAN...SEE SURFACE FEATURES ABOVE. ELSEWHERE...CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA FROM NICARAGUA TO GUATEMALA. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL CUBA NEAR
22N80W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR
19N70W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN.
EXPECT...MATTHEW TO BE CLOSE TO THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA IN
24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 35N60W
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A 1014 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 32N40W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S TO 28N39W
23N42W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
T.S. LISA IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC. SEE ABOVE. OF NOTE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS ARE A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL LOWS AT 31N34W AND
33N22W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA






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