[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 231818
TWDAT

AXNT20 KNHC DDHHMM
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU SEP 23 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION LISA AT 23/1500 UTC IS NEAR
17.5N 28.9W...OR ABOUT 210 NM TO THE WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS. LISA IS MOVING NORTHWARD 02 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT4/
WTNT34 AND THE FULL FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 17N TO 18.5N BETWEEN 28W AND 29.5W.
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE
FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 25W AND 30W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS
SYSTEM MAY BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD ABOUT 15 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE UNIT
AIRCRAFT IS INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM. THIS LOW CENTER MAY BECOME
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS LOW PRESSURE
CENTER HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL IN SECTIONS
OF CENTRAL AMERICA IN A FEW DAYS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN HAS DEVELOPED IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA
NEAR 13.9N 76.2W AT 23/1800 UTC. THE DEPRESSION IS ABOUT 150 NM
TO THE NORTH OF THE COLOMBIA COAST...AND ABOUT 420 NM TO THE
EAST OF NICARAGUA. IT IS MOVING WESTWARD 13 KT. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT54/
WTNT35 AND THE FULL FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THIS DEPRESSION HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL IN SECTIONS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA IN A FEW DAYS. SCATTERED STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM NORTHWESTERN COASTAL VENEZUELA NEAR 12N
TO 16N BETWEEN 70W AND 79W. OTHER RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE EAST OF
THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO THE SOUTH OF 15N BETWEEN 63W AND 70W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

NO TROPICAL WAVES ARE ON THE MAP AT THIS TIME.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM AFRICA COAST ALONG 11W FROM 6N TO 7N...TO 6N22 TO 4N30W...
AND FROM 12N36W TO 11N45W TO 11N52W TO 11N60W NEAR TRINIDAD.
ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 4N TO 8N BETWEEN 13W
AND 22W...AND FROM 3N TO 13N BETWEEN 26W AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
ONE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 26N89W IN
THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CENTER
IS NEAR 25N94W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 26N TO THE
WEST OF 90W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE EAST OF
90W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA.

UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 15N TO 26N BETWEEN 64W AND
76W...AROUND A 20N69W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 15N TO
17N BETWEEN 66W AND 70W. THE PRECIPITATION AND CYCLONIC FLOW
ARE ABOUT 360 NM TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FIFTEEN. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN 80W AND 85W...SOME REACHING NORTHEASTERN
NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS...AND FROM 20N TO WESTERN CUBA
BETWEEN 82W AND 87W.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 12N TO
18N BETWEEN 80W AND 85W...SOME REACHING NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA
AND EASTERN HONDURAS...AND FROM 20N TO WESTERN CUBA BETWEEN 82W
AND 87W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF JULIA IS A 1011 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N39W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO 30N36W AND 26N41W. LOW CLOUDS
AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE TROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 31N23W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER TO A SECOND CYCLONIC CENTER THAT IS NEAR
23N26W TO 21N30W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 20N26W
26N21W 30N18W...AND TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 13W AND 26W.
BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 45W. IT IS MOVING AROUND
A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 36N57W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT




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