[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 221817
TWDAT

AXNT20 KNHC DDHHMM
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED SEP 22 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LISA AT 22/1500 UTC IS NEAR
17.1N 30.5W...OR ABOUT 300 NM TO THE WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS. LISA IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD 03 KT. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS ARE 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST
NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 AND THE FULL FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/
WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. STRONG
RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 17N TO 18N BETWEEN 30W
AND 31W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 13N TO 20N
BETWEEN 24W AND 30W...AND FROM 9N TO 13N BETWEEN 32W AND 37W.

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 69W TO THE
SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. A 1009 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 13N. THIS FEATURE
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY
OR TOMORROW...AND IT HAS A CHANCE TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA TO THE SOUTH OF
16N BETWEEN 60W AND 75W...INCLUDING NORTHERN COASTAL SECTIONS
OF VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA...AND THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES.
THIS FEATURE ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS
IN SECTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA IN A FEW DAYS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE GOES FROM 20N20W TO A 1008 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 17N22W...TO 12N21W. NO
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS NEAR THIS WAVE.

...THE ITCZ...

THE MONSOONAL TROUGH IS ALONG 10N/11N BETWEEN 32W AND 50W. THE
ITCZ IS ALONG 9N50W 8N56W 11N63W. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS
TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 51W
AND 54W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 2N TO 10N
BETWEEN 18W AND 32W...AND FROM 6N TO 11N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO
A 24N88W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...INTO SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE
REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND INTERIOR MEXICO. RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTHERN HALF OF BELIZE
TO THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...ACROSS CUBA...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA TOWARD CENTRAL
AMERICA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM 28N77W...TO THE NORTH OF THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS...ACROSS CUBA...INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS...
INTO WESTERN HONDURAS AND EL SALVADOR. ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE LINE FROM CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS.

UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 14N TO 24N BETWEEN 56W AND 73W...
AROUND A 20N63W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. STRONG RAINSHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF THE 16N BETWEEN 60W AND
70W. THE PRECIPITATION AND CYCLONIC FLOW ARE NEAR THE TROPICAL
WAVE THAT IS ALONG 69W. ISOLATED RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 23N TO 26N
BETWEEN 65W AND 68W. MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NEAR AND OVER THE BAHAMAS FROM 21N TO 26N
BETWEEN 70W AND 75W.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE TO THE NORTH OF 12N BETWEEN 75W AND 84W...IN BETWEEN THE TWO
AREAS OF CYCLONIC FLOW. ONE AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW IS AROUND THE
20N63W ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CENTER. THE OTHER AREA OF
CYCLONIC FLOW IS THE TROUGH THAT PASSES OVER CUBA. UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE SOUTH
OF 12N BETWEEN 79W AND THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N24W TO 23N27W TO 18N33W.
BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 45W. IT IS MOVING AROUND
A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 35N65W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT




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