[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 211800
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE SEP 21 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IGOR IS NEAR 48.5N 52.0W AT 21/1800 UTC
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD 40 KT. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 20 KM TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF ST. JOHNS NEWFOUNDLAND. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 950 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
ARE 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. IGOR IS EMBEDDED WITHIN
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AS DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION REMAINS
DISPLACED TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. IGOR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
EXTRATROPICAL WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. PLEASE READ THE LATEST
NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 AND THE FULL FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LISA IS NEAR 18.1N 31.7 AT
21/1500 UTC...OR ABOUT 385 NM TO THE WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS...MOVING NORTH 4 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE
40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 AND THE FULL FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/ WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 18N TO 19N
BETWEEN 31W AND 32W...WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 19N
BETWEEN 30W AND 31W...WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 19N28W...
WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 16N BETWEEN 32W AND 33W...
AND FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN 33W AND 35W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N19W 16N19W 12N17W
9N15W. A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR
16N19W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
A 30 NM RADIUS OF 18N20W. OTHER RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 11N TO 19N BETWEEN 19W AND 21W.

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N64W 12N63W
9N61W. A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR
12N63W. LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 13N TO 21N BETWEEN
52W AND 62W...AROUND AN 18N57W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER.
A SECOND CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA
NEAR 17N67W...ABOUT 70 NM TO THE SOUTH OF THE MONA PASSAGE.
STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN
61W AND 68W. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 53W AND 62W...AND
FROM 14N TO 20N BETWEEN 69W AND 75W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND
PARTIALLY ACROSS AREAS OF HISPANIOLA.

...THE ITCZ...

LARGE-SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOONAL
TROUGH COVERS THE AREA FROM 6N TO 22N TO THE EAST OF 46W.
SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 53W AND 62W...AND FROM 7N TO 10N
BETWEEN 56W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. CYCLONIC FLOW
COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND U.S.A. GULF COASTAL AREAS FROM 26N
TO 32N BETWEEN 83W AND 90W. EARLIER RAINSHOWERS APPEARED TO BE
FROM 23N TO 25N BETWEEN 88W AND 90W ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE
CYCLONIC FLOW. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT PRECIPITATION STILL REMAINS
IN THAT AREA. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM
WESTERN CUBA TO 29N BETWEEN 83W AND 87W. ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 28N BETWEEN 92W AND THE MEXICO/
SOUTH TEXAS COAST...IN BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE...AND UPPER
LEVEL SHEARING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ACROSS FLORIDA AND CUBA...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA TOWARD CENTRAL
AMERICA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES ON TOP OF BERMUDA...TO 26N75W IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS...TO 23N78W
BETWEEN ANDROS ISLAND AND CUBA...TO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...TO
EASTERN HONDURAS AND SOUTHWESTERN NICARAGUA. ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA
TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF JAMAICA...AND IN THE COASTAL
PLAINS/COASTAL WATERS FROM WESTERN PANAMA TO NORTHERN
NICARAGUA...AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 22N BETWEEN
68W AND 75W.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL LOW PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA TO THE
SOUTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 75W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS
ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 14N BETWEEN 75W AND 82W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N26W TO 26N32W TO 21N33W.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N59W 27N63W 24N71W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES AROUND A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N48W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT




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