[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 210303 RRA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON SEP 20 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE IGOR IS CENTERED NEAR 39.0N 60.5W AT 21/0000 UTC OR
ABOUT 565 NM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MOVING NE AT 25 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 968 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS REMAIN 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. IGOR IS EMBEDDED WITHIN
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR WITH ALL THE DEEP CONVECTION
DISPLACED 90 NM TO THE N OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 90 TO 360 NM IN THE N SEMICIRCLE OF
IGOR. IGOR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRA-TROPICAL WITHIN THE NEXT
12-24 HOURS. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 AND THE FULL FORECAST
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

THE REMNANT GALE CENTER OF FORMER TROPICAL STORM JULIA IS
CENTERED NEAR 35N46W OR ABOUT 875 NM WSW OF THE AZORES ISLANDS.
THE GALE CENTER WAS MOVING E ABOUT 10 KT WITH AN ESTIMATED
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1000 MB. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS
SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS HFDHSFAT1/FZNT01
KWBC.

A 1007 MB LOW IS LOCATED W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 16N32W
DRIFTING TO THE NE. A BURST OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CENTER WITH CLOUD
TOP TEMPERATURES OF -85C. IN ADDITION CONVECTION WAS ORGANIZED
IN A BAND WHICH CURVED FROM 18N30W TO 16N30W TO 14N32W.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND THERE IS A HIGH
PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE W AFRICAN COAST EXTENDING FROM
9N18W TO 20N16W WITH A 1007 MB LOW ANALYZED AT THE FAR N END OF
THE WAVE. THE WAVE WAS MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE WAVE AXIS WITH A SURGE
OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE JUST OFF THE COAST EVIDENT IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
NOTED FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 17W-21W.

...ITCZ...

A MONSOONAL TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 11N19W TO LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM NEAR 16N32W TO 11N40W TO 10N45W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 27W-33W. THE TRADITIONAL ITCZ
AXIS PICKS UP NEAR 10N45W TO 13N58W.  A SURFACE TROUGH IS E OF
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ALONG 13N59W TO 08N60W ENHANCING SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 59W-62W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IS NOTED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH
EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION WHICH TURNED MORE TO THE SE ALONG
THE TEXAS COAST IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK RETURN FLOW TROUGH.
THIS TROUGH WAS AIDING IN THE MAINTENANCE OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST OF NE MEXICO AND TEXAS FROM 24N-29N
BETWEEN 94W-98W. SKIES WERE GENERALLY CLEAR OVER FLORIDA AND THE
E GULF E OF 85W AS DRY AIR IS BEING ADVECTED SOUTHWARD IN THE
WAKE OF DEPARTING HURRICANE IGOR. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER MEXICO NEAR 23N104W. NORTHERLY FLOW
AROUND THE HIGH WAS ADVECTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE GULF
W OF 84W. VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF HURRICANE IGOR
WAS PRESSING SWD ACROSS FLORIDA TOWARD CUBA RESULTING IN RATHER
COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 60W-64W DUE TO THE SURFACE TROUGH
JUST E OF THE ISLANDS. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF COLOMBIA FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN
73W-82W...WEAK 10-15 KT SURFACE WINDS COVERS MOST OF THE
CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N OF 15N BETWEEN 73W-80W. CONSIDERABLE
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN AND
CENTRAL AMERICA. EXPECT...CONTINUED SHOWERS AND CONVECTION OVER
THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 75W AND OVER THE S CARIBBEAN S OF 15N OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE ATLANTIC S OF 31N IS THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE NEAR 16N32W WHICH CONTINUES TO SHOW INCREASING
ORGANIZATION WITH TIME. THIS LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MUCH
LARGER MONSOONAL TROUGH WHICH GOVERNS THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IN
THE ATLANTIC E OF 45W. AS INDICATED ABOVE THERE IS A HIGH
PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION WITH THIS LOW OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. AT THE UPPER LEVEL A LARGE ANTICYCLONE NEAR
30N50W DOMINATES MOST OF THE REGION. A SHEAR AXIS EXTENDS TO THE
S OF THE HIGH FROM 23N30W TO 18N40W TO 17N55W. THE LOW WAS
SITUATED TO THE E OF THIS SHEAR AXIS. ELSEWHERE A SHARP UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N72W SWD TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND WAS
ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG DRY AIR ALOFT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
COBB




This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net