[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201802
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON SEP 20 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE IGOR IS CENTERED NEAR 37.1N 62.5W AT 20/1800 UTC OR
ABOUT 304 NM NNE OF BERMUDA MOVING NE AT 23 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED
IS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. IGOR REMAINS A LARGE SYSTEM AND
BERMUDA IS STILL REPORTING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS. SEE LATEST
NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. MOST OF THE
CONVECTION IS N OF THE CENTER. NUMEROUS MODERATE/SCATTERED
STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 36N BETWEEN 60W-67W.

TROPICAL STORM JULIA IS CENTERED NEAR 34.7N 46.4W AT 20/1500 UTC
OR ABOUT 956 NM W OF THE AZORES MOVING E AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED
IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS JULIA
MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS AND CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE WIND SHEAR
FROM THE OUTFLOW OF HURRICANE IGOR. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE CENTER FROM
31N-36N BETWEEN 35W-42W.

A 1007 MB LOW IS LOCATED W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 16N32W
MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER HAS INCREASED.
CONVECTION E OF THE CENTER HAS INCREASED WITH SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 27W-33W. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE W AFRICAN COAST ALONG 19N15W TO
9N18W MOVING W NEAR 5-10 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE WAVE AXIS WITH A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE JUST OFF THE COAST EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN
17W-22W.

...ITCZ...

A MONSOONAL TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR
16N32W TO 11N40W 10N45W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 33W-43W. THE TRADITIONAL ITCZ AXIS PICKS UP
NEAR 11N47W TO 11N56W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 47W-55W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS E OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS ALONG 13N58W TO 10N58W 7N59W ENHANCING
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM 9N-17N BETWEEN 55W-59W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGING IS BUILDING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH RETURN
FLOW OVER THE NW GULF PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 94W-98W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO ALONG THE COAST OF NE
MEXICO FROM 20N-24N BETWEEN 96W-99W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER
FLORIDA AND THE E GULF E OF 87W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER NE MEXICO NEAR 23N99W. CONSIDERABLE
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE W GULF W OF 84W. EXPECT...
CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER S TEXAS AND THE W GULF W OF 90W OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN 60W64W DUE TO THE SURFACE TROUGH
JUST E OF THE ISLANDS. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS N OF VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 65W-68W...
AND FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 70W-76W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 78W-83W.
WEAK 10-15 KT SURFACE WINDS COVERS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS... STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN N OF 15N BETWEEN 73W-80W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL
AMERICA. EXPECT...CONTINUED SHOWERS AND CONVECTION OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN E OF 75W AND OVER THE S CARIBBEAN S OF 15N OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

HURRICANE IGOR...T.S. JULIA...TOGETHER WITH A TROPICAL LOW ARE
THE PRIMARY SURFACE FEATURES OVER THE ATLANTIC. IGOR...A
CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE...IS MOVING AWAY FROM BERMUDA AND IS
STILL PRODUCING JUST UNDER TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OVER THE
ISLAND. SEE ABOVE. JULIA CONTINUES TO MOVE ENE. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER OUTFLOW OF IGOR CONTINUES TO SHEAR
JULIA. VISIBLE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF DUST OVER THE
E ATLANTIC FROM 15N-25N E OF 60W TO W AFRICA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MRF/SMM







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