[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT42 KNHC 172053
TCDAT2
HURRICANE JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL122010
500 PM AST FRI SEP 17 2010

JULIA HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING MODERATE NORTHERLY SHEAR...AND
AT TIMES IT APPEARS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS BEGINNING TO
BECOME EXPOSED.  USING A BLEND OF SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK
T-NUMBERS LEADS TO A CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 65 KT.  THE
SHEAR...WHICH IS PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MASSIVE OUTFLOW
PATTERN OF HURRICANE IGOR...IS NOT LIKELY TO RELENT.  IN FACT...
THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE SHEAR WILL BECOME STRONGER.
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS STEADY WEAKENING AND IS BASED
ON A COMBINATION OF THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL SHIPS AND LGEM
MODELS. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE
THAT JULIA WILL BECOME ABSORBED BY THE MUCH LARGER CIRCULATION OF
POST-TROPICAL IGOR.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 300/18.  THE FORECAST REASONING IS
ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED.  JULIA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AROUND A
MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL HIGH FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BEFORE GETTING
PULLED INTO THE CIRCULATION OF IGOR.  THUS...THE NHC TRACK FORECAST
SHOWS A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...NORTH...AND NORTH-
NORTHEAST.  THIS IS JUST A LITTLE TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL TRACK AND GENERALLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS TVCN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      17/2100Z 25.2N  48.2W    65 KT
 12HR VT     18/0600Z 26.9N  50.0W    60 KT
 24HR VT     18/1800Z 29.6N  51.8W    55 KT
 36HR VT     19/0600Z 32.5N  52.3W    50 KT
 48HR VT     19/1800Z 34.8N  51.2W    45 KT
 72HR VT     20/1800Z 38.2N  47.2W    35 KT
 96HR VT     21/1800Z 43.0N  43.0W    25 KT
120HR VT     22/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


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