[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT43 KNHC 172031
TCDAT3
HURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132010
400 PM CDT FRI SEP 17 2010

KARL MADE LANDFALL JUST NORTH-NORTHWEST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO AT
ABOUT 1630Z.  BEFORE LANDFALL...THE CENTRAL PRESSURE RAPIDLY ROSE
FROM 957 MB TO 976 MB OVER A 4.5 HOUR PERIOD FOR REASONS THAT ARE
NOT READILY APPARENT.  DESPITE THIS...THE AIRCRAFT-REPORTED WINDS
SUPPORTED MAJOR HURRICANE INTENSITY UNTIL LANDFALL.  SINCE LANDFALL
THE HURRICANE HAS STEADILY WEAKENED...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF
80 KT MAY BE A BIT GENEROUS.  KARL SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO...AND THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO
DISSIPATE COMPLETELY BY 48 HR.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 250/8.  A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO
SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER KARL TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR WEST
UNTIL DISSIPATION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      17/2100Z 19.1N  96.6W    80 KT...INLAND
 12HR VT     18/0600Z 18.8N  97.7W    50 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     18/1800Z 18.7N  99.1W    30 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     19/0600Z 18.7N 100.6W    25 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     19/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


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