[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171757
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI SEP 17 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE KARL IS CENTERED NEAR 19.2N 96.4W AT 17/1800 UTC OR
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM W OF VERACRUZ MEXICO MOVING WSW AT 7 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. SEE LATEST NHC
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 AND THE FULL FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 94W-97W. IN
ADDITION...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION COVERS THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA FROM 17N-22N BETWEEN 94W-99W. KARL IS EXPECTED TO MAKE
LANDFALL SHORTLY.

HURRICANE IGOR IS CENTERED NEAR 23.4N 60.7W AT 17/1800 UTC OR
ABOUT 665 MI...1070 KM SSE OF BERMUDA MOVING NW AT 8 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 946 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. SEE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 21N-24N
BETWEEN 58W-62W. IN ADDITION...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 20N-25N BETWEEN 58W-64W.
OUTER RAINBANDS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 26N60W TO 23N56W
20N58W.

HURRICANE JULIA IS CENTERED NEAR 24.2N 46.7W AT 17/1500 UTC OR
ABOUT 1500 MI...2415 KM SW OF THE AZORES MOVING WNW AT 17 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 981 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. SEE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
22N-26N BETWEEN 45W-48W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA ALONG 21W S OF 18N
MOVING W AT 10 KT. AN EMBEDDED LOW IS ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR
11N21W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM
10N-13N BETWEEN 22W-27W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE AXIS.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC HAS BROKEN DOWN OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE HURRICANES.
RESIDUAL WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS HOWEVER OFF THE
COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 30W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
HURRICANE KARL MADE LANDFALL 10 NM N OF VERACRUZ MEXICO MOVING
WSW AT 7 KT. 15 FT STORM SURGE...HIGH WINDS...CONSIDERABLE
CONVECTION WITH POSSIBLE MUDSLIDES AND LOCAL FLOODING ARE NOW
NEAR THE LANDFALL AREA. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. BANDS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EXTENDS OVER
THE CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N-29N BETWEEN 85W-98W. ELSEWHERE...
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E
GULF NEAR 23N88W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE
ENTIRE GULF BETWEEN FLORIDA AND TEXAS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
ALTHOUGH KARL IS CENTERED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...A BROAD AREA
OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 85W. PATCHES
OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
AND S MEXICO W OF 88W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG THE COASTS OF PANAMA ND COSTA
RICA S OF 11N BETWEEN 80W-87W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM BARBADOS TO TRINIDAD. OVERCAST
LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
DUE TO THE OUTER RAINBANDS OF IGOR. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. 20-25 KT SURFACE WINDS ARE OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS AND N OF PUERTO RICO DUE TO IGOR. WEAK 10 KT
TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 70W-80W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
HURRICANES IGOR AND JULIA TOGETHER WITH A NEW TROPICAL WAVE ARE
THE PRIMARY SURFACE FEATURES OVER THE ATLANTIC. IGOR POSES A
THREAT TO BERMUDA. SEE ABOVE. THE IGOR EYEWALL TRAVERSED BUOY
41044 LAST NIGHT NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS ARE STILL BEING REPORTED BY THE BUOY. OF INTEREST...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER OUTFLOW OF IGOR IS STARTING TO
SHEAR JULIA. VISIBLE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF DUST
OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 15N-25N E OF 40W TO W AFRICA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MRF/SMM






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