[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 170548
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI SEP 17 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE KARL IS CENTERED NEAR 19.7N 94.8W AT 17/0600 UTC OR
ABOUT 80 NM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO AND ABOUT 165 NM ESE OF
TUXPAN MEXICO MOVING W AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 967 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 90 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 110 KT. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 AND THE FULL FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
CENTER IN ALL QUADRANTS WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM S OF 21N W OF
94W TO INLAND OVER THE S MEXICO.

HURRICANE IGOR IS CENTERED NEAR 22.2N 59.2W AT 17/0600 UTC OR
ABOUT 325 NM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ABOUT 675 NM
SSE OF BERMUDA MOVING NW AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 935 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 110 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 135 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 6O NM FROM THE CENTER IN
THE NE SEMICIRCLE WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION
COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 19N-23N BETWEEN 57W-62W.
OUTER RAINBANDS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN 51W-57W AND FROM 20N-27N
BETWEEN 52W-62W.

HURRICANE JULIA IS CENTERED NEAR 23.5N 42.9W AT 17/0300 UTC OR
ABOUT 1195 NM SW OF THE AZORES MOVING WNW AT 21 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 983 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED
IS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF
THE CENTER IN THE NW QUADRANT WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
60 NM OF THE CENTER ELSEWHERE.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA ALONG 18W/19W S OF 16N
MOVING W 5-10 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING
NEAR THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 12N. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY/
CONVECTION.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ/MONSOONAL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE ATLC BASIN FROM
7N21W 11N29W THEN RESUMES NEAR 11N33W 9N40W TO 11N46W. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN
28W-38W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 22W-26W AND FROM 7N-10N
BETWEEN 41W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE S GULF OF MEXICO IS HURRICANE KARL
THAT COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL LATER
ON FRI OVER MEXICO...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. THE BROAD UPPER
RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH KARL COVERS THE GULF E OF 97W PROVIDING
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO SUPPORT OUTER RAINBANDS WITH CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVERING MOST OF THE
GULF WATERS TO INLAND OVER THE COAST OF LOUISIANA/TEXAS AND TO
THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS
LEAVING THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE CLEAR TONIGHT. A SHORTWAVE UPPER
TROUGH IS OVER E TEXAS FROM SAN ANTONIO TO NEAR BROWNSVILLE WITH
ACCOMPANYING MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR AND THUS CLEAR
SKIES.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
ALTHOUGH HURRICANE KARL IS IN THE S GULF OF MEXICO...THE BROAD
UPPER RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH KARL COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W
BRINGING HIGH CLOUDS TO THE AREA. AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED S OF
HURRICANE IGOR IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC IS GIVING THE E CARIBBEAN
S TO SW FLOW ALOFT INDUCING AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS FROM W COLOMBIA NEAR 9N71W TO HAITI NEAR 18N72W. THE N
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN COUPLED WITH THE CONVERGING
SURFACE FLOW IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF
13N BETWEEN 73W-82W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE AIR
COVERS THE CARIBBEAN N OF 13N BETWEEN 64W-77W GIVING THE AREA
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
HURRICANE IGOR REMAINS A CONCERN FOR THE ATLC WATERS TONIGHT
WHILE HURRICANE JULIA BEGINS TO WEAKEN...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES
ABOVE. THE UPPER RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE KARL STILL
COVERS THE FAR W ATLC W OF 77W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING SW
OVER THE W ATLC AND THE N GULF OF MEXICO. OTHERWISE...STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT COVERS THE W ATLC FROM 65W-80W
GIVING THE AREA FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT. THE UPPER RIDGE ASSOCIATED
WITH IGOR COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM 16N-30N BETWEEN 50W-65W.
THE UPPER RIDGE ASSOCIATED JULIA HAS NARROWED OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS EXTENDING MOSTLY N/S. AN E/W UPPER RIDGE HAS ONCE AGAIN
DOMINATED THE E TROPICAL ATLC ALONG 20N TO 35W. THE LAST VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DRY SAHARAN AIR AND DUST COVERING THE E
ATLC FROM 16N-28N E TO 32W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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