[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT42 KNHC 170248
TCDAT2
HURRICANE JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL122010
1100 PM AST THU SEP 16 2010

THE EYE OF JULIA BECAME BETTER DEFINED IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES
FOR A PERIOD OF TIME THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE AREA OF COLD
CLOUDS TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HURRICANE HAS DECREASED IN SIZE.
THE LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 70 KT.  THE GLOBAL MODELS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW THAT
JULIA WILL BE ENTERING AN AREA OF STRONG NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW FROM HURRICANE IGOR VERY SHORTLY.
THE SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATES 30-40 KT WIND SHEAR DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO.  DURING THIS TIME JULIA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
SIGNIFICANTLY AND THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 36 HOURS.  IF JULIA SURVIVES THE
STRONG SHEAR...THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT COULD IMPROVE BETWEEN 36-72 HOURS.  DURING THAT TIME
ONLY GRADUAL WEAKENING IS SHOWN. IN 4-5 DAYS...JULIA IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE IN THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE EAST OF IGOR. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS
INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

JULIA CONTINUES TO MOVE QUICKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH AN INITIAL
MOTION OF 290/21 KT.  THE FORECAST TRACK REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED
AS JULIA WILL BE MOVING AROUND THE WESTERN PORTION OF A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS
AGAIN SHIFTED WESTWARD AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT. THE
NEW FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THE GFS...WHICH IS ALONG THE EAST EDGE OF
THE GUIDANCE...AND THE TVCN CONSENSUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      17/0300Z 23.5N  42.9W    70 KT
 12HR VT     17/1200Z 24.6N  45.7W    60 KT
 24HR VT     18/0000Z 26.3N  48.8W    55 KT
 36HR VT     18/1200Z 28.6N  50.8W    50 KT
 48HR VT     19/0000Z 31.0N  52.0W    45 KT
 72HR VT     20/0000Z 35.0N  50.5W    40 KT
 96HR VT     21/0000Z 39.0N  46.5W    35 KT
120HR VT     22/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


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