[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 161756
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU SEP 16 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE KARL IS CENTERED NEAR 19.7N 92.7W AT 16/1500 UTC OR
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO...OR ABOUT 150
MI...240 KM W OF CAMPECHE MEXICO...MOVING W AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 983 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED
IS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 AND THE FULL
FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 17N-21N
BETWEEN 92W-95W. IN ADDITION...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND S MEXICO FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN
91W-96W.

HURRICANE IGOR IS CENTERED NEAR 21.0N 57.2W AT 16/1500 UTC OR
ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...OR
ABOUT 910 MI...1465 KM SSE OF BERMUDA...MOVING NW AT 6 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 934 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT. SEE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 18N-22N
BETWEEN 55W-59W. IN ADDITION...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 17N-25N BETWEEN 53W-60W.

HURRICANE JULIA IS CENTERED NEAR 22.4N 38.6W AT 16/1500 UTC OR
ABOUT 1050 MI...1690 KM WNW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...OR ABOUT
1280 MI...2060 KM SW OF THE AZORES...MOVING WNW AT 22 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 971 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. SEE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF JULIA HAS CONTINUED
TO DETERIORATE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS WITH MOST OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 21N-25N BETWEEN
37W-41W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA ALONG 17W S OF
17N MOVING W AT 10 KT. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY HELPED DEPICT THE LOCATION. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 15W-18W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE AXIS.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC HAS BROKEN DOWN OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE HURRICANES.
RESIDUAL WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS HOWEVER OFF THE
COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 6N-13N BETWEEN 19W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
HURRICANE KARL IS MOVING W AT 10 KT OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO
AND IS FORECAST TO MAKE ANOTHER LANDFALL NEAR TUXPAN MEXICO AT A
HIGHER INTENSITY...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. BANDS OF WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXTENDS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF FROM
23N-28N BETWEEN 86W-96W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL FROM
20N-22N BETWEEN 84W-87W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER FLORIDA. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E
GULF NEAR 25N85W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE
ENTIRE GULF BETWEEN FLORIDA AND TEXAS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
ALTHOUGH KARL IS CENTERED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...A BROAD AREA
OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN N OF 19N BETWEEN 82W-88W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER
THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA S OF 11N BETWEEN
75W-82W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN. 20-25 KT SURFACE WINDS ARE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
DUE TO IGOR. WEAK 10 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 70W-80W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
HURRICANES IGOR AND JULIA TOGETHER WITH A NEW TROPICAL WAVE ARE
THE PRIMARY SURFACE FEATURES OVER THE ATLANTIC. SEE ABOVE.
HAVING THREE SIMULTANEOUS HURRICANES IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN IS
NOT A COMMON OCCURRENCE EVEN FOR THE PEAK OF THE HURRICANE
SEASON WHICH WE ARE IN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA






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