[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 161112
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU SEP 16 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM KARL IS CENTERED NEAR 19.8N 91.6W AT 16/0900 UTC
OR ABOUT 60 NM W OF CAMPECHE MEXICO AND ABOUT 335 NM E OF TUXPAN
MEXICO MOVING W-NW AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO
55 KT. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 AND THE FULL FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE
COAST OF MEXICO IN THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 20N E OF 93W. WITH
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERING THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM S OF 21N E OF 96W TO INLAND OVER THE
YUCATAN AND S MEXICO.

HURRICANE IGOR IS CENTERED NEAR 20.5N 56.8W AT 16/0900 UTC OR
ABOUT 380 NM E-NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ABOUT 830
NM S-SE OF BERMUDA MOVING W-NW AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 929 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 125
KT WITH GUSTS TO 155 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 6O NM FROM THE CENTER IN
ALL QUADRANTS WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION COVERING
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 16N-23N BETWEEN 52W-60W.

HURRICANE JULIA IS CENTERED NEAR 21.2N 36.2W AT 16/0900 UTC OR
ABOUT 760 NM W-NW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING NW AT 16 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. SEE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 21N37W TO 24N36W. SATELLITE
PRESENTATION OF JULIA HAS CONTINUED TO DETERIORATE OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS WITH MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE
NORTH OF THE CENTER.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ/MONSOONAL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE ATLC BASIN BEING
DISTORTED SOMEWHAT BY HURRICANES IGOR AND JULIA EXTENDING FROM
10N14W 9N19W 12N22W THEN RESUMES NEAR 11N36W 10N42W TO 12N50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE
FROM 12N19W TO 10N26W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 27W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE S GULF OF MEXICO IS THAT T.S. KARL
COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON FRI BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL OVER
MEXICO...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE
ASSOCIATED WITH T.S. KARL COVERS THE GULF E OF 97W PROVIDING
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO SUPPORT OUTER RAINBANDS WITH CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 30N BETWEEN THE
COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND 95W INCLUDING THE FLORIDA
KEYS. A NARROW SWATH OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR IS OVER
THE FAR W GULF N OF 22N W OF 96W AND THUS REMARKABLY CLEAR SKIES
THERE THIS MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
ALTHOUGH T.S. KARL REMAINS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE BROAD
UPPER RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH T.S. KARL COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN N
OF 11N W OF 75W PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 11N W OF 75W TO OVER CUBA
AND CENTRAL AMERICA. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN FROM THE W/CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE TO
THE GULF OF VENEZUELA COVERING THE AREA E OF 75W WITH DRY STABLE
AIR AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16N TO OVER SW HAITI BETWEEN
72W-74W AND FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 67W-71W. THE ITCZ/MONSOONAL
TROUGH CROSSES COLOMBIA AND PANAMA GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 11N BETWEEN 75W-79W AND WITHIN 45 NM
ALONG THE REMAINDER OF THE COAST OF PANAMA. HIGH CLOUDS WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN
ISLANDS IN THE OUTER RAINBANDS OF HURRICANE IGOR.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
HURRICANES IGOR AND JULIA ARE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE ATLC
AGAIN THIS MORNING. THE UPPER RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH T.S. KARL IS
MOVING OUT OF THE W ATLC BUT CONTINUES TO PROVIDE DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 26N TO OVER CUBA W OF 79W INTO THE FLORIDA
STRAITS. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W
ATLC. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE W/CENTRAL ATLC
THROUGH 32N63W ALONG 25N67W THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE INTO THE
CARIBBEAN WITH DRY AIR E OF HURRICANE IGOR TO OVER THE BAHAMA
ISLANDS. THE UPPER RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH IGOR CONTINUES TO BE
LARGE A RATHER UNIFORM. HURRICANE JULIA IS UNDER SOUTHERLY SHEAR
DISRUPTING THE UPPER RIDGE WITH MOST OF THE OUTFLOW TO THE N.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY STABLE AIR AND THUS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE AREA BETWEEN IGOR AND JULIA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW






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