[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160004
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED SEP 15 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM KARL IS CENTERED NEAR 19.2N 90.1W AT 16/0000 UTC
OR ABOUT 50 NM SE OF CAMPECHE MEXICO MOVING WNW AT 12 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. KARL CONTINUES
TO BE LOCATED INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THEREFORE
HAS WEAKENED OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...IT CONTINUES
TO GENERATE STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE
ALL QUADRANTS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN. THE OUTER BANDS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA INCLUDING THE CENTRAL AND SE
GULF OF MEXICO AND THE NW CARIBBEAN. RE-INTENSIFICATION IS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY OR FRIDAY AFTER THE CENTER EMERGES INTO THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE.

HURRICANE IGOR IS CENTERED NEAR 20.1N 55.6W AT 15/2100 UTC OR
ABOUT 505 NM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ABOUT 1015
NM SE OF BERMUDA MOVING W-NW AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 942 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 115 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 140 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 130 NM FROM THE CENTER IN
THE SW AND SE QUADRANTS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WITHIN 140 NM FROM
THE CENTER IN THE NW AND NE SEMICIRCLE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT OR TWO...BUT IGOR IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN A DANGEROUS HURRICANE.

HURRICANE JULIA IS CENTERED NEAR 19.2N 33.5W AT 15/2100 UTC OR
ABOUT 665 NM WNW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING NW AT 15 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 953 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. SEE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM
FROM THE CENTER IN THE SW SEMICIRCLE AND 60 NM FROM THE CENTER
IN THE NE SEMICIRCLE.  SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WITHIN 120 NM FROM
THE CENTER.  JULIA IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY TODAY
BEFORE SLOWLY WEAKENING LATER ON THURSDAY.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ...OR PERHAPS BETTER DESCRIBED AS A MONSOONAL TROUGH
BECAUSE OF THE CONVERGENCE OF NE AND SW SURFACE WINDS...REMAINS
DISCONTINUOUS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC DUE TO HURRICANES IGOR AND
JULIA. THE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 9N13W 8N19W 11N25...RESUMING NEAR
10N35N TO 11N44W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 6N TO 12N BETWEEN 13W AND 28W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS
FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 34W AND 43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE OUTER BANDS FROM TROPICAL STORM KARL SPREAD ACROSS THE GULF
AFFECTING MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND SE BASIN S OF 28N E OF 94W
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH WINDS UP TO
25 KT. THE ACTIVITY IS ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE NOTED
IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF...BETWEEN THE OUTFLOW GENERATED BY
KARL AND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA.
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ELSEWHERE W OF 94W AND OVER THE FAR
NE BASIN THIS EVENING. SHORT RANGE COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH KARL WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN BASIN THROUGHOUT THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND
OVER THE WEEKEND. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS
REGARDING THIS SYSTEM.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE OUTER BANDS FROM TROPICAL STORM KARL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA N OF 15N W OF 76W PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. SEE SPECIAL
FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS REGARDING THIS SYSTEM. AWAY FROM
THIS AREA OF CONVECTION...FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE BASIN WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE
EASTERLY SFC FLOW...ESPECIALLY E OF 75W...DUE TO DRY AIR AND
STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE FAR
WESTERN ATLC AREA OF DISCUSSION S OF 26N W OF 75W...INCLUDING
THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS AND THE NORTHERN
COASTAL WATERS OF CUBA. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED
WITH TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSED ABOVE IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION. THE ONLY MINOR SYNOPTIC FEATURE OF NOTE IS THE TAIL END
OF A WEAK STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM 28N74W TO 32N65W
CONTINUING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THERE. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS FOUND
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS BOUNDARY...THOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME
LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS PRESENT WITHIN 20 NM OF THE AXIS. ASIDE
HURRICANES IGOR AND JULIA...THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC N OF 22N
IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT AROUND AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SUPPORTING A 1028 MB HIGH LOCATED NORTH OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 41N30W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA



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