[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT42 KNHC 150532
TCDAT2
HURRICANE JULIA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL122010
1230 AM AST WED SEP 15 2010

ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT JULIA HAS RAPIDLY
STRENGTHENED DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS WITH THE EYE NOW MORE
DISTINCT AND CIRCULAR AND THE LARGER CIRCULATION LESS ELONGATED
THAN IT WAS EARLIER. CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -75 C NOW SURROUND THE
EYE.  A SPECIAL CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB GAVE A DVORAK T-NUMBER OF
6.0 OR 115 KT AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS ARE
CLOSER TO 100 OR 105 KT.  BASED ON THESE ESTIMATES...THE NEW
INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 110 KT.  SINCE THE ENVIRONMENT HAS
OBVIOUSLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING...AT LEAST IN THE
SHORT TERM...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
UPWARD FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE CHANGES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      15/0530Z 16.9N  31.3W   110 KT
 12HR VT     15/1200Z 17.8N  32.1W   120 KT
 24HR VT     16/0000Z 19.4N  34.2W   120 KT
 36HR VT     16/1200Z 21.0N  37.3W   110 KT
 48HR VT     17/0000Z 22.4N  40.8W    90 KT
 72HR VT     18/0000Z 25.0N  47.0W    75 KT
 96HR VT     19/0000Z 29.0N  51.0W    65 KT
120HR VT     20/0000Z 33.0N  51.0W    50 KT

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/PASCH



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