[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150001
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE SEP 14 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE IGOR IS CENTERED NEAR 8.8N 53.1W AT 14/2100Z OR ABOUT
655 NM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MOVING WNW AT 7 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 933 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 124 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS IGOR HAS MAINTAINED A WELL-DEFINED EYE AND VERY GOOD
CIRRUS OUTFLOW IN ALL DIRECTIONS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER WHILE NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED
STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 13N-24N BETWEEN 46W-56W. SEE
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

HURRICANE JULIA IS CENTERED NEAR 16.7N 30.2W AT 14/2100 UTC OR
ABOUT 405 NM WNW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING
WNW AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS
BEFORE JULIA COMES UNDER INCREASED WESTERLY SHEAR THAT WILL
IMPACT THE CYCLONE. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 110 NM OF THE CENTER WHILE SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG IS ELSEWHERE FROM 13N-20N BETWEEN
27W-32W. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED
IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS BECOME MORE ORGANIZED OVER
THE PAST 6 HOURS...AND HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM KARL.
THIS SYSTEM IS CENTERED NEAR 18.4N 84.8W AT 15/0000 UTC OR ABOUT
230 MI...370 KM E OF CHETUMAL MEXICO MOVING WNW AT 13 KT. THE
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION IS GENERATED BY THIS SYSTEM AND COVERS A GREAT AREA
OF THE WNW CARIBBEAN W OF 80W N OF 11N INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL AMERICA. THE OUTER BANDS EXTEND TO 25N W OF 71W.
THEREFORE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
JAMAICA...CUBA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
AND BELIZE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC AND THE
FULL FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ...

A MONSOONAL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE ATLC BASIN BETWEEN
HURRICANES IGOR AND JULIA ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG
11N31W TO 12N39W TO 17N44W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-11N BETWEEN 7W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE GULF WITH
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF NEAR 29N91W. THIS UPPER FLOW IS PROVIDING A DRY
AIRMASS ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF...NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. THIS AIRMASS IS SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE
BASIN. HOWEVER...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS CIRCULATING
CLOSELY EAST TO THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH...GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN
GULF WATERS N OF 25N E OF 87W. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED OVER
THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 95W S OF 22N AND IS PROVIDING
FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS OF MEXICO W OF 93W S OF 23N. THE OUTER BANDS ASSOCIATED
WITH TROPICAL STORM KARL ARE BEGINNING TO ENTER THE FAR SE GULF
THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE
DETAILS REGARDING THIS SYSTEM.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MAIN FEATURE OF CONCERN IS TROPICAL STORM KARL IMPACTING THE
WNW CARIBBEAN. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS
REGARDING THIS SYSTEM. ELSEWHERE EAST OF 75W...NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM
14N TO 18N BETWEEN 65W AND 75W...ASSOCIATED TO THE OUTER BANDS
OF CONVECTION GENERATED BY KARL. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
THAT MOSTLY DRY AIR ALOFT AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENE
CARIBBEAN E OF 65W N OF 16N E OF 70W INCLUDING THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...PROVIDING OVERALL FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THIS
REGION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A DEEP LAYER TROUGH COVERING THE
NORTHWESTERN ATLC...SUPPORTING A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT
THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE WESTERN AREA OF DISCUSSION ALONG 32N65W
27N72W 25N80W...GENERATING SCATTERED WEAK SHOWERS WITHIN 20 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETELY
DISSIPATE IN 24 HOURS. NUMEROUS HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXTEND N OF HAITI AND CUBA S OF 24N W OF 71W...INCLUDING THE SE
BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL
STORM KARL DISCUSSED ABOVE IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION.
ASIDE HURRICANES IGOR AND JULIA...THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC N OF
22N IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT AROUND AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SUPPORTING A 1030 MB HIGH LOCATED NORTH OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 43N29W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA




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