[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 141153
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE SEP 14 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE IGOR IS CENTERED NEAR 17.9N 51.7W AT 14/0900 UTC OR
ABOUT 650 NM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MOVING W-NW AT 7
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 945 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. SEE LATEST
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA FROM 14N-21N BETWEEN 47W-54W.

TROPICAL STORM JULIA WAS UPGRADED TO HURRICANE AT 14/0900 UTC.
HURRICANE JULIA IS CENTERED NEAR 16.1N 29.0W AT 14/0900 UTC OR
ABOUT 290 NM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING W-NW AT 10 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. SEE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
13N-19N BETWEEN 26W-32W.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AREA IS LOCATED OVER THE W/CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE N COAST OF
CUBA NEAR 23N79W THROUGH THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND A 1007 MB LOW
CENTERED NEAR 17N81W TO OFF THE COAST OF PANAMA NEAR 10N81W. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE W TO W-NW AT 9 TO 13 KT. SEE TROPICAL
WEATHER OUTLOOK UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE N CARIBBEAN FROM 16N ACROSS CUBA TO
23N BETWEEN 76W-85W. REGARDLESS OF ANY DEVELOPMENT LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...
CUBA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO THAT COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

...ITCZ...

THE MONSOONAL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE ATLC BASIN. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-11N E OF 23W TO INLAND
OVER W AFRICA AND FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 23W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE SE
U.S. EXTENDING INTO THE W ATLC ANCHORED OVER THE SE LOUISIANA
COAST NEAR NEW ORLEANS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN ACROSS THE E GULF FROM 24N-29N E OF 85W TO
THE FLORIDA W COAST. A WEAK UPPER INVERTED TROUGH IS IN THE S
GULF OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 96W SUPPORTING A SURFACE
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 22N95W TO S MEXICO NEAR 18N95W
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
S OF 20N W OF 92W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY DRY
STABLE AIR ALOFT DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF THIS
MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING IS THE BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. THE UPPER
LEVELS OF THE CARIBBEAN ARE DOMINATED BY PRIMARILY EASTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WITH A UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC SE TO OFF THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 12N63W...AN UPPER
INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM PANAMA NEAR 9N82W TO 17N80W AND A
SECOND INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG THE E COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE W PORTION OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE
UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA FROM VENEZUELA TO HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 67W-72W AND IN
THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND NICARAGUA. THIS
IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE E CARIBBEAN UNDER CLEAR SKIES
THIS MORNING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
HURRICANE IGOR AND JULIA ARE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE TROPICAL
ATLC THIS MORNING. THE UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE GULF MEXICO
EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR DAYTONA BEACH TO
27N72W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE SW ATLC EXTENDING FROM 23N71W
ACROSS THE E TIP OF CUBA INTO THE CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N74W
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN
71W-77W INCLUDING SOME OF THE BAHAMAS ISLANDS...TURKS AND
CAICOS. A BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA
W OF 58W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR
32N68W ALONG 27N72W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 26N78W
BECOMING STATIONARY TO OVER FLORIDA NEAR WEST PALM BEACH TO
NAPLES. DRY AIR IS TRAILING THE FRONT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. A SECOND DEEP LAYERED TROUGH
IS N OF THE CENTRAL ATLC DISCUSSION AREA SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT
THAT IS ALSO N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITHIN 45 NM OF A LINE FROM 30N50W TO BEYOND 32N48W.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF
THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE AREA
SURROUNDING HURRICANE IGOR AND THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE IN THE
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLC
EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH
32N28W TO NEAR 22N38W. AN E/W UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS OFF AFRICA S
OF 30N E TO 26W WITH THE AXIS ALONG 21N.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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