[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 140552
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE SEP 14 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE IGOR IS CENTERED NEAR 17.7N 51.2W AT 14/0300 UTC OR
ABOUT 685 NM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MOVING W AT 8 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 937 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT. SEE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
COVERS THE AREA FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN 47W-54W.

TROPICAL STORM JULIA IS CENTERED NEAR 15.6N 28.0W AT 14/0300 UTC
OR ABOUT 215 NM W-NW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MOVING W-NW AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE/
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 26W-31W.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AREA IS LOCATED OVER THE W/CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE TURKS AND
CAICOS NEAR 21N74W ACROSS E CUBA AND THE WESTERN TIP OF JAMAICA
THROUGH A 1006 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 16N80W TO THE COAST OF
PANAMA NEAR 9N82W. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE W TO W-NW AT 9
TO 13 KT. SEE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE N CARIBBEAN FROM
17N-23N INCLUDING THE GREATER ANTILLES BETWEEN 72W-84W AND
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 12N-14N. REGARDLESS OF
ANY DEVELOPMENT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD OCCUR OVER PORTIONS
OF HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...CUBA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO THAT COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

...ITCZ...

THE MONSOONAL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE ATLC BASIN WITH NO ITCZ.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 3N-11N E OF 44W TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE SE
U.S. EXTENDING INTO THE W ATLC ANCHORED OVER THE SE LOUISIANA
COAST NEAR VERMILION BAY. AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOPED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA HAVE MOVED WESTWARD INTO
THE E GULF FROM 25N-28N E OF 84W TO THE FLORIDA W COAST. A WEAK
UPPER INVERTED TROUGH IS IN THE S GULF OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
ALONG 93W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 23N93W
TO S MEXICO NEAR 18N94W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM W OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH. AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA HAVE MOVED WESTWARD TO OVER THE E BAY OF
CAMPECHE S OF 21N E OF 93W TO INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT DOMINATES THE REMAINDER
OF THE GULF TONIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT IS THE BROAD AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. THE UPPER LEVELS
OF THE CARIBBEAN ARE DOMINATED BY PRIMARILY EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WITH A UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SE
TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...AN UPPER INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 9N76W TO 17N77W AND A SECOND INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM HONDURAS NEAR 15N87W TO 21N86W. THE UPPER RIDGE
IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM VENEZUELA TO HISPANIOLA BETWEEN
67W-72W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
HURRICANE IGOR AND TROPICAL STORM JULIA ARE THE PRIMARY FOCUS
FOR THE TROPICAL ATLC TONIGHT. THE UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE
GULF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR DAYTONA
BEACH TO 27N74W. A BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS N OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA W OF 60W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE
W ATLC NEAR 32N69W TO 28N74W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MOST BAHAMA ISLANDS TO OVER FLORIDA NEAR WEST PALM
BEACH. DRY AIR IS TRAILING THE FRONT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. A SECOND DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS N OF
THE CENTRAL ATLC DISCUSSION AREA SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT
ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N50W TO 31N51W WHERE IT BECOMES A
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 28N57W TO 27N65W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM SE OF THE FRONT N OF 30N. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE W
AND CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE AREA SURROUNDING
HURRICANE IGOR AND THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE IN THE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION. BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLC
EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH
32N27W TO JUST NE OF HURRICANE IGOR NEAR 24N40W. AN E/W UPPER
RIDGE EXTENDS OFF AFRICA ALONG 21N TO 23W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW




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