[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 131152
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON SEP 13 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IGOR AT 13/0900 UTC IS NEAR 17.7N 44.4W.
IGOR IS MOVING WESTWARD 11 KT. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 745 NM TO
THE EAST OF THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 935 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS ARE 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST
NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST AND ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 14N TO
20N BETWEEN 45W AND 52W. OTHER RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COVER THE REST OF THE AREA FROM 10N TO 23N BETWEEN 38W AND 45W
IN BANDS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE HURRICANE.

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JULIA AT 13/1200 UTC IS NEAR 14.5N
25.6W...MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 12 KT. JULIA IS ABOUT 70 NM
TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. PLEASE READ
THE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST AND ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 18N TO
20N BETWEEN 20W AND 23W...AND FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 25W AND
27W.

A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 16N73W...ABOUT 210 NM TO
THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF JAMAICA. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM
THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO 13N77W AND 11N83W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM 15N TO 19N BETWEEN 74W
AND 78W. THIS MEANS THAT THE PRECIPITATION IS REACHING THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF HAITI...AND PRACTICALLY ALL OF JAMAICA...
IN THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN HAITI AND JAMAICA...AND IN THE
WATERS THAT ARE ABOUT 170 NM TO THE SOUTH OF JAMAICA. OTHER
ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE AREA THAT IS TO THE
SOUTH OF 14N TO THE WEST OF 75W. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE IN SECTIONS OF HISPANIOLA... JAMAICA...AND CUBA DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THESE RAINS MAY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES... ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY FORM
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

NO OTHER TROPICAL WAVES ARE ON THE 13/0000 UTC SURFACE MAP.

...ITCZ...

9N21W 8N27W 7N23W...14N40W 12N47W 11N53W 13N59W. ISOLATED
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE
SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 10W AND 40W...AND FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN
36W AND 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS FLORIDA...TO THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL...TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO...AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N70W TO THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS...TO SOUTH FLORIDA...TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO. STRONG RAINSHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE NORTHERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND
THE MEXICO COASTAL WATERS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO. NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TO 13N
BETWEEN 94W AND 98W. A FEW RAINSHOWERS REMAIN IN THE WATERS OF
FLORIDA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 25N TO THE
WEST OF 90W. A COLD FRONT IS TO THE NORTHEAST OF 31N78W. THE
STATIONARY FRONT FROM SIX HOURS AGO...ALONG 31N78W TO 31N83W TO
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA IS WEAKENING WITH TIME. A 1012 MB LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPED IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 29N84W. A SURFACE CONTINUES FROM THE END OF AN
ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD FRONT NEAR 31N77W...TO THE 29N84W LOW
CENTER...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INTO THE NORTHERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 28N TO THE EAST OF
90W.

INTERIOR MEXICO AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE 30N107W UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER FROM SIX
HOURS AGO HAS MOVED INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.A. NUMEROUS
STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS
OF 22N106W ALONG THE MEXICO COAST...IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENT FLOW. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE WEATHER NEWS IS DOMINATED BY THE 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 16N73W...WITH A TROUGH THAT EXTENDS TOWARD THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS
ARE TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 80W...RELATED TO THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS
THE AREA TO THE WEST OF 69W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM VENEZUELA TO THE NORTHWEST OF LAKE
MARACAIBO TO THE WATERS THAT ARE ABOUT 110 NM TO THE NORTH OF
VENEZUELA BETWEEN 69W AND 72W AT THE PENINSULA DE LA GUAJIRA
OF COLOMBIA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE WATERS OF THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC OCEAN...THROUGH 32N52W TO 25N54W TO 23N60W. A COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N53W TO 28N60W 28N67W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N47W 30N51W 28N60W 27N70W 25N80W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
ALONG 22N58W TO 19N59W 17N57W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE
WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 20N59W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH 32N24W TO A 27N33W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO
19N35W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 27N TO 30N BETWEEN 25W AND 30W. A SURFACE
RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N37W TO 26N43W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT




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