[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 130612
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON SEP 13 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0445 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IGOR AT 13/0300 UTC IS NEAR 17.7N 44.4W.
IGOR IS MOVING WESTWARD 11 KT. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 825 NM TO
THE EAST OF THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 935 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS ARE 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST
NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST AND ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 17N TO
19N BETWEEN 46W AND 50W. OTHER RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COVER THE REST OF THE AREA FROM 9N TO 14N BETWEEN 43W AND
49W...AND FROM 15N TO 21N BETWEEN 45W AND 53W.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE WAS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM JULIA
AT 13/0300 UTC. THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JULIA AT 13/0600 UTC
IS NEAR 14.0N 24.0W...MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 10 KT. JULIA IS
ABOUT 65 NM TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS ARE 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT2/
WTNT32 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST AND ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG
RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 17N TO 19N BETWEEN 17W
AND 24W...AND FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 23W AND 26W.

A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 16N73W...ABOUT 210 NM TO
THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF JAMAICA. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM
THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO 13N77W AND 11N83W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE REACHING THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF HAITI
IN THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN HAITI AND JAMAICA. OTHER ISOLATED
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE AREA WITHIN 270 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE LINE FROM SOUTHWESTERN HAITI TO COSTA RICA ALONG 10N83W.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN SECTIONS OF HISPANIOLA...
JAMAICA...AND CUBA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THESE RAINS MAY
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES... ESPECIALLY
IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION MAY FORM DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

NO OTHER TROPICAL WAVES ARE ON THE 13/0000 UTC SURFACE MAP.

...THE ITCZ...

9N21W 8N27W 7N23W...14N40W 12N47W 11N53W 13N59W. ISOLATED
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 10W AND 40W...AND FROM 10N TO 15N
BETWEEN 45W AND 51W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS FLORIDA...TO THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL...TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 31N75W TO CENTRAL
FLORIDA...TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS
ARE IN FLORIDA AND/OR AROUND THE STATE FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TO
29N BETWEEN 80W AND 83W...INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...AND IN THE
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A COLD FRONT IS TO
THE NORTHEAST OF 31N78W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 31N78W
TO A 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS CLOSE TO THE FLORIDA/
GEORGIA BORDER NEAR 31N83.5W...ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
INTO SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...AND NORTHWESTWARD BEYOND EAST
TEXAS. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH 31N77W INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA.

INTERIOR MEXICO AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT HAS BEEN MOVING
WESTWARD AND NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE LAST 48 HOURS OR SO HAS
LIFTED NORTHWARD. THIS CYCLONIC CENTER NOW IS IN NORTHERN MEXICO
NEAR 30N107W. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND COVERS MEXICO...THE FAR WEST
OF TEXAS...NEW MEXICO...AND ARIZONA TO THE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN
THE TEXAS BIG BEND AND 110W. MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 27N109W. STRONG
RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE WESTERN MEXICO COAST
FROM 20N TO 23N BETWEEN 105W AND 106W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE WEATHER NEWS IS DOMINATED BY THE 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 16N73W...WITH A TROUGH THAT EXTENDS TOWARD THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS
ARE TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 80W...RELATED TO THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE
MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...FROM 14N TO 16N
BETWEEN 61W AND 65W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE WATERS OF THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC OCEAN...THROUGH 32N52W TO 25N54W TO 23N60W. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS ALONG 22N58W TO 18N57W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS
ARE WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 20N59W...AND WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N51W 29N55W 28N62W 27N70W
26N76W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES FROM A 36N18W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER...THROUGH 32N21W...TO A 28N35W CYCLONIC
CENTER...TO 21N32W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 25N TO 30N BETWEEN 25W AND 31W.
A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 35N34W TO 30N40W TO 29N48W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT







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