[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121748
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN SEP 12 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IGOR AT 12/1500 UTC IS NEAR 17.7N 45.7W.
IGOR IS MOVING WESTWARD 11 KT. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 1145 MI...
1840 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
ARE 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/
WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST AND ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTER. IN ADDITION
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 43W-47W.

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE AT 12/1800 UTC IS NEAR
13.1N 22.2W. T.D. TWELVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 12 KT. THIS POSITION
IS ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT2/ WTNT32 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST
AND ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
11N-17N BETWEEN 20W-26W.

A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 16N72W...ABOUT 120 NM
SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS OVER PUERTO
RICO...AND HISPANIOLA THAT MAY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-19N BETWEEN
70W-76W...AND FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 66W-70W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY FORM DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

NONE.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS SW OF T.D.TWELVE ALONG 5N23W 8N30W 12N36W...
AND SW OF HURRICANE IGOR ALONG 12N45W 10N52W 12N60W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 8W-32W...AND FROM
9N-12N BETWEEN 41W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 21N94W
17N93W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 17N-21N
BETWEEN 92W-98W. A 1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N90W. A COLD FRONT DIPS INTO THE NORTHERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE ALONG 31N85W 30N89W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH IS CENTERED OVER E TEXAS NEAR 30N95W. NE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
COVERS THE GULF. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 22N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO TRAVERSE N
FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT
CONVECTION OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND FURTHER W OVER S
MEXICO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1007 MB LOW IS S OF HISPANIOLA MOVING W. SEE THE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 75W-84W. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N GUATEMALA. A RATHER LAX SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA THUS TRADEWINDS ARE
MOSTLY 10-15 KT EXCEPT NEAR THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN LOW WHERE 20
KT WINDS ARE NOTED. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N70W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
COVERS MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN. EXPECT THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN LOW TO MOVE W AT 15 KT WITH CONVECTION AND
DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 31N59W 29N64W. A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO 27N69W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1033 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC NEAR 45N20W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDS SW TO 30N45W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 25N W OF 75W. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS N OF 25N BETWEEN 65W-75W. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 50W-65W. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 40W-50W. AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 29N32W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA






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