[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 121156
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN SEP 12 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IGOR AT 12/0900 UTC IS NEAR 17.7N 44.4W.
IGOR IS MOVING WESTWARD 16 KT. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 990 NM TO
THE EAST OF THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS ARE 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/
WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST AND ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. STRONG RAIN-
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 16N TO 19N BETWEEN 42W AND
48W. OTHER RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N TO 14N
BETWEEN 30S AND 47W...AND FROM 18N TO 22N BETWEEN 30W AND 47W.

A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 16N69W...ABOUT 180 NM TO
THE SOUTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN 67W AND 74W.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...
PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE
RAINS MAY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...
ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY FORM DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17N19W 8N20W MOVING
WESTWARD 10 KT. A 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE
NEAR 13N. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS FEATURE MAY TURN INTO
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND IT MAY BE
NECESSARY TO ISSUE ADVISORIES AT ANY TIME TODAY. ANYONE WHO IS
IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR CLOSELY THE PROGRESS
OF THIS SYSTEM IN CASE WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE REQUIRED. PLEASE
READ THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG
RAIN-SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 18W
AND 23W...RIGHT AT THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

NO OTHER TROPICAL WAVES ARE ON THE 12/0600 UTC SURFACE MAP.

...THE ITCZ...

9N13W 7N19W 7N23W 12N34W 13N45W 11N52W 12N58W. ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 4N TO 10N
BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 25N106W
IS MOVING ACROSS MEXICO TOWARD ITS WESTERN COAST. ISOLATED
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS COVER MEXICO FROM 20N TO 29N BETWEEN 103W
AND THE WESTERN COAST OF THE COUNTRY. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER HAS MOVED FROM THE GULF OF
HONDURAS...ACROSS BELIZE AND GUATEMALA...INTO SOUTHEASTERN
MEXICO. NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND IN THE NORTHERN ISTHMUS
OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALSO ARE IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND BELIZE. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 18N
TO 20N BETWEEN 100W AND 106W...NEAR AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENT FLOW. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS MOST
OF THE OPEN WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. WEAKENING RAINSHOWERS
HAVE BEEN FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA...
BETWEEN 81W AND 83W...NEAR A WEAK INVERTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
THAT IS ALONG 83W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 16N69W...ABOUT
180 NM TO THE SOUTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...IS THE MOST
NEWSWORTHY WEATHER FEATURE AT THIS MOMENT. STRONG RAINSHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN 67W
AND 74W. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER HAS MOVED
FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS...ACROSS BELIZE AND GUATEMALA...INTO
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN TEGUCIGALPA
HONDURAS FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 12/0000 UTC WAS 1.60 INCHES.
NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND IN THE NORTHERN ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALSO ARE IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND BELIZE. OTHER RAINSHOWERS
ARE TO THE NORTH OF 14N...FROM NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA INTO
MUCH OF HONDURAS. A COMPARATIVELY WEAKER CYCLONIC CENTER IS NEAR
18N83W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. A SURFACE TROUGH
IS ALONG THE LINE FROM THE COAST OF PANAMA THAT IS ALONG 80W...
TO 19N84W. THIS TROUGH REPRESENTS THE REMNANTS OF GASTON.
ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LINE
THAT EXTENDS FROM 13N70W TO JAMAICA TO THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CUBA
THAT IS ALONG 80W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE
AREA IN GENERAL TO THE WEST OF 70W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE WATERS OF THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE TROUGH IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PASSES THROUGH
32N58W TO 27N60TO 25N68W...TO THE SOUTH OF ANDROS ISLAND IN THE
BAHAMAS. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N61W TO 29N70W. THE COLD
FRONT IS DISSIPATING FROM 29N70W TO 29N75W AND 30N78W. SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE
THAT PASSES THROUGH 33N56W TO 29N60W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS
WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE COLD FRONT TO THE
EAST OF 77W. LOW CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH THAT
IS ALONG THE 27N51W 21N56W 15N50W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THE AZORES...TO 29N24W TO 32N33W. A SURFACE
RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 34N37W TO 30N41W TO 26N48W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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