[Tropical] Tropical Weather Outlook and Summary

[EMWIN Server]

ABNT20 KNHC 120319
TWOAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1120 PM EDT SAT SEP 11 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SPECIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED TO RAISE DEVELOPMENT CHANCE FOR SYSTEM IN THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC AND TO INDICATE IGOR AS A HURRICANE NOT A TROPICAL
STORM

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON RECENTLY
UPGRADED HURRICANE IGOR...LOCATED ABOUT 1140 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DECREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
SEA. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.  THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.  REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
IS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE THAT THE VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ABOUT 375 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED.  IF CURRENT
TRENDS CONTINUE...ADVISORIES COULD BE INITIATED TONIGHT OR SUNDAY.
INTERESTS IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM IN CASE WATCHES OR WATCHES ARE REQUIRED.
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

SHOWERS ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES EAST OF BERMUDA.
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM APPEARS UNLIKELY BEFORE IT IS ABSORBED
BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM.  THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BEVEN


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