[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111105
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT SEP 11 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IGOR AT 11/0900 UTC IS NEAR
17.1N 37.8W...MOVING WESTWARD 18 KT. THIS POSITION IS
ABOUT 720 NM TO THE WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. PLEASE
READ THE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST
AND ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS. THE FORECAST TRACK MAKES IGOR A HURRICANE DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND IGOR MAY REACH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN JUST TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AFTER ABOUT THE
NEXT 5 DAYS OR SO. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 37W AND 41W. OTHER RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 18N TO 21N BETWEEN 29W AND 38W...
AND FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 35W AND 40W.

A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 14N63W...ABOUT
120 NM TO THE WEST OF SAINT LUCIA...MOVING NORTHWESTWARD
15 TO 20 KT DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 62W AND 67W. OTHER
COMPARATIVELY SMALLER RAINSHOWERS COVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA ISLANDS TO THE SOUTH OF 17N BETWEEN 60W AND 64W. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY FORM DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. EXPECT ALSO INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS...AND
LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO MOVE THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA
WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN WESTERN AFRICA ALONG 13W/14W TO THE SOUTH
OF 19N. NUMEROUS STRONG PRECIPITATION COVERS AFRICA AND COASTAL
WATERS FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 15W AND 19W.

...THE ITCZ...

9N16W 14N30W...13N38W 10N46W 13N59W. ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
4N TO 12N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER HAS MOVED ONSHORE
ALONG THE MEXICO COAST...BETWEEN 20N AND THE MEXICO BORDER WITH
TEXAS. DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE SURROUNDS THIS CYCLONIC CENTER.
STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AROUND THE PERIPHERY
OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND AWAY FROM THE DRY AIR...IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WITHIN A 30 NM TO 60 NM RADIUS
OF 19N93W, A SECOND CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS ABOUT 540 NM TO THE
WEST OF THE FIRST ONE...MOVING ACROSS MEXICO...INTO THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA...AND WEAKENING AND BECOMING LESS APPARENT WITH TIME.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA
TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
TO THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF TEXAS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 14N63W AND ITS
RELATED PRECIPITATION ARE THE MOST NEWSWORTHY WEATHER EVENT AT
THIS MOMENT. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN
THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN HAITI...CUBA...AND JAMAICA. A SECOND
AND COMPARATIVELY WEAKER CYCLONIC CENTER IS NEAR 17N85W IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 81W
FROM 12N TO THE COAST OF CUBA. THIS TROUGH REPRESENTS THE
REMNANTS OF GASTON. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE BETWEEN 80W AND 85W...EVEN IN PARTS OF EASTERN
HONDURAS AND NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
FLOW COVERS THE AREA IN GENERAL TO THE WEST OF 70W. ISOLATED
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE REST
OF THE WATERS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT EXTENDS FROM
13N70W TO 18N80W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE WATERS OF THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE TROUGH IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PASSES THROUGH
32N63W TO 26N68W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. A COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH 32N66W TO 31N70W...BECOMING STATIONARY...AND CONTINUING
TO A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N74W. THE
STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM THE 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
TO THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF GEORGIA. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH
33N59W 30N66W TO 28N75W. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM A 32N34W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 27N47W TO 20N52W.
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 26N TO 31N BETWEEN
46W AND 51W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 22W AND 35W.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 13N44W 20N49W 28N47W. POSSIBLE
LINGERING SHOWERS ARE FROM 20N TO 26N BETWEEN 46W AND 52W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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