[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110603
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT SEP 11 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0445 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IGOR AT 11/0300 UTC IS NEAR
17.1N 34.9W...MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 18 KT. THIS POSITION
IS ABOUT 555 NM TO THE WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. PLEASE
READ THE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST AND ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 14N TO
18N BETWEEN 35W AND 39W. OTHER RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE IN A LINE FROM 19N TO 20N BETWEEN 33W AND 36W. OTHER
COMPARATIVELY WEAKER SHOWERS COVER THE AREA FROM 16N TO 20N
BETWEEN 27W AND 32W.

A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 13N61W...IN THE
SAINT VINCENT PASSAGE...JUST OFF THE COAST OF THE ISLAND OF
SAINT VINCENT. THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE
INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...PUERTO RICO...
AND HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS TO 72 HOURS.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS SYSTEM MAY BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA
TO THE SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO BETWEEN 58W AND 68W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN WESTERN AFRICA ALONG 10W/11W TO THE SOUTH
OF 19N. NUMEROUS STRONG PRECIPITATION COVERS AFRICA FROM 11N TO
16N BETWEEN 13W AND 16W. OTHER ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND
LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE NEARBY ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN THE COAST OF AFRICA AND 19W.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 9N13W TO 13N23W...11N37W 10N47W
13N58W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 30W...
AND FROM 4N TO 12N BETWEEN 35W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1015 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
28N86W. 5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS DOMINATES THE GULF.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER
S FLORIDA S OF 27N...AND OVER INLAND CUBA W OF 80W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS
AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM
19N-21N BETWEEN 89W-92W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH IS CENTERED OVER E TEXAS NEAR 31N96W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED OVER THE SW GULF NEAR 22N95W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS
MOST OF THE GULF EXCEPT WHERE CONVECTION IS NOTED. EXPECT...
LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE 1009 MB SAINT VINCENT LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND ITS RELATED
PRECIPITATION ARE THE MOST NEWSWORTHY WEATHER EVENT AT THIS
MOMENT. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE
WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN HAITI...CUBA...AND JAMAICA. A SECOND AND
COMPARATIVELY WEAKER CYCLONIC CENTER IS NEAR 18N84W IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW
COVERS THE AREA IN GENERAL TO THE WEST OF 70W. ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE WATERS TO THE
WEST OF THE LINE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA
COAST ALONG 70W TO THE COAST OF CUBA THAT IS ALONG 76W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE WATERS OF THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE TROUGH IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PASSES OVER
BERMUDA TO 28N68W AND 27N76W JUST OFF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS.
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N69W TO 32N71W...BECOMING
STATIONARY...CONTINUING TO A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 32N76W. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM THE 1012 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER TO THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF GEORGIA. THE FRONT
CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS GEORGIA. SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES
THROUGH 33N60W 31N65W TO 30N70W. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM A 33N35W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 27N47W.
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 26N TO 29N BETWEEN
43W AND 48W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 29W AND 35W.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 12N44W 20N49W 27N47W. POSSIBLE
LINGERING SHOWERS ARE WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 14N49W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT




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