[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 101744
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI SEP 10 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM IGOR IS CENTERED NEAR 16.4N 31.0W AT 10/1500 UTC
OR ABOUT 405 NM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING W AT 14 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC
PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS DECREASED
OVER IGOR...AND IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE MORE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS GIVING IGOR A BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR INTENSIFICATION WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH BY SUNDAY.
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS MAINLY W OF THE CENTER FROM
14N-19N BETWEEN 31W-36W.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
ASSOCIATED WITH A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW JUST W OF BARBADOS NEAR
13N60W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH THE CENTER FROM
16N59W TO 10N61W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
COVERS THE AREA FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 56W-64W. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE OF THE NEXT 48 HRS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WNW AT 5
KT.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND OVER W AFRICA ALONG 8W FROM 6N-15N
MOVING W 10-15 KT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES LOW-LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW IS ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS CONCENTRATED NEAR A 1012 MB
LOW ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 11N. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION IS MAINLY W OF THE AXIS TO THE AFRICAN COASTLINE.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 11N19W RESUMING NEAR 9N28W
9N40W 7N50W 10N57W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION HAS
PUSHED OFF THE W COAST OF AFRICA FROM 7N-15N E OF 18W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN
33W-45W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 45W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO CENTERED OVER SRN
TEXAS NEAR 29N98W WITH AXIS EXTENDING SE ACROSS SRN FLORIDA. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE SW GULF CENTERED OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE NEAR 21N93W. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS PREVIOUSLY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH HAVE NOW DISSIPATED. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MOSTLY DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE BASIN
MAINTAINING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING COVERS
THE AREA EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC. RADAR IMAGERY DOES INDICATE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS S FLORIDA AND ACROSS A FEW AREAS OF THE
NRN GULF INCLUDING ERN TEXAS AND SE LOUISIANA. EXPECT LITTLE
CHANGE ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE WRN CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM
JAMAICA NEAR 19N77W TO 13N76W. THIS TROUGH IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
ENHANCED AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...AND IS SUPPORTING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN
74W-82W. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
IS BRINGING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SE CARIBBEAN S OF 16N E
OF 65W. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR ALOFT
MAINTAINING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS. ALOFT...MAINLY ELY FLOW
COVERS THE BASIN WITH NELY WINDS ALOFT ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN
AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE GULF. A SECOND
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVER THE NE CARIBBEAN CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC. EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY NEAR BOTH THE
SURFACE TROUGH S OF JAMAICA AND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS AS BOTH SYSTEMS MOVE WWD.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERING THE NW ATLC SUPPORTS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY JUST N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. HOWEVER...ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DRIFTED S OF THE FRONT COVERING THE
AREA N OF 29N BETWEEN 61W-78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE ALSO FLARED UP OVER CENTRAL CUBA AND THE SW BAHAMAS FROM
21N-25N BETWEEN 77W-80W ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF ENHANCED
MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE SW ATLC IS
EXPERIENCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK
SURFACE RIDGING ACCOMPANIED BY DRY AIR ALOFT. FARTHER E...A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N44W TO 14N45W CONNECTING A PAIR
OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERS. THE FIRST IS A 1015 MB LOW CENTERED
NEAR 25N44W SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NE OF THE
CENTER FROM 25N-27N BETWEEN 40W-44W. THE SECOND LOW CENTER IS A
1012 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 16N45W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 75 NM OF THE CENTER. SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATED THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 34N32W.
ALOFT...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVER THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC
CENTERED NEAR 23N31W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON





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