[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101143
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI SEP 10 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION IGOR IS CENTERED NEAR 16.0N 29.3W AT 10/0900
UTC OR ABOUT 305 NM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING W AT 11
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. PLEASE SEE
LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST AND ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES OVER THE IGOR WITH THE
LOW LEVEL CENTER PARTIALLY EXPOSED AS VIEWED ON THE FIRST
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 15N30W TO 18N33W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 30W-34W.

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 17N60W THROUGH A 1009 MB LOW
CENTERED JUST W OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 12N60W TO NEAR
10N59W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA
FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 58W-65W INCLUDING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...
TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO. THE LOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING W OR WNW NEAR 5
KT. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 10N30W 7N36W 7N47W 8N54W 7N60W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-10N
BETWEEN 30W-39W AND FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 44W-50W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF 5N FROM
14W-17W WITH CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION FROM 7N-10N W OF 56W
TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA S OF
12N E OF 8W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE MOST OF THE GULF WATERS
ANCHORED ALONG THE TEXAS COAST BETWEEN GALVESTON AND CORPUS
CHRISTI EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS E ALONG 29N ACROSS THE N GULF
INTO THE W ATLC. AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 92W IN
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 23N TO INLAND OVER S MEXICO GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
S OF 20N BETWEEN 91W-94W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
28N89W TO 24N91W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME
ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS DOTTING THE AREA WITHIN 120/150 NM OF
LINE FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 25N80W TO 27N94W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR ACTIVITY OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN.
AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE GULF OF HONDURAS S OF 18N W OF 86W. EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT
COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 73W-84W. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL
INVERTED TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM
COLOMBIA NEAR 10N76W TO JAMAICA NEAR 17N78W. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM E CUBA NEAR 20N77W ACROSS JAMAICA TO NEAR 14N78W
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN FROM
12N-17N BETWEEN 75W-82W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS
DOTTING THE AREA S OF 13N TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA BETWEEN
65W-70W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA SUPPORTING A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALSO N OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF A LINE FROM 32N62W
30N72W TO 32N77W ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT. THE BROAD UPPER
RIDGE THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS AN AXIS INTO THE W
ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR DAYTONA BEACH TO NEAR 26N65W. A
WEAKENING NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLC NEAR 32N48W SW ALONG 24N60W TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR
21N71W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR IS SE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH COVERING THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 15N TO 44W. AN E/W UPPER
RIDGE COVERS THE E TROPICAL ATLC AND IS ANCHORED N OF T.D. IGOR
NEAR 20N28W EXTENDING AN AXIS E TO OVER W AFRICA AND W TO 50W.
BENEATH THIS UPPER RIDGE IS THE T.D. IGOR IN THE SPECIAL
FEATURES ABOVE. ALSO BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE IS A 1013 MB
SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 16N45W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING
N ALONG 21N45W TO 26N42W GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN 40W-44W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS
THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC N OF 26N E OF 60W ANCHORED BY A 1025
MB HIGH ABOUT 300 NM SW OF THE AZORES.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW




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