[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100005
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU SEP 09 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM IGOR HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED AT 09/2100 UTC
TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IGOR
AT 09/2100 UTC IS NEAR 16.0N 26.4W...MOVING NORTHWESTWARD 11 KT.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. PLEASE READ
THE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST AND ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 14N TO
16N BETWEEN 27W AND 30W.

A SURFACE TROUGH GOES FROM 16N59W TO A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 12N61W...TO 10N61W. SCATTERED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 13N TO
15N BETWEEN 59W AND 62W. THIS PRECIPITATION ALSO IS OCCURRING
IN AN AREA OF A CERTAIN AMOUNT OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS SYSTEM MAY BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS FEATURE CURRENTLY IS AFFECTING
THE ISLANDS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND MAYBE IN
NEARBY VENEZUELA.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

NO TROPICAL WAVES ARE ON THE 1800 UTC SURFACE MAP ANALYSIS.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM 10N27W TO 7N35W TO 11N58W.  BROAD LARGE-SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW
THAT IS NOT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO THE EAST OF 27W. NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 7N TO 8N BETWEEN 48W AND 51W. ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 5N TO 10N
BETWEEN 28W AND 48W. REMAINING RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF
12N BETWEEN 51W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH
OF 25N. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE SOUTH
OF 25N. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER HAS MOVED
ON TOP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA. OTHER SMALLER AREAS OF UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW ARE IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF WATERS...AND IN MEXICO NEAR 20N100W.
RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SPREAD THROUGHOUT MOSTLY
THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...ACROSS
GUATEMALA...AND IN MEXICO FROM ITS BORDER WITH GUATEMALA
TO 100W TO THE SOUTH OF 20N. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO
COVER MUCH OF MEXICO TO THE WEST OF 100W...IN AREAS OF HIGHER
ELEVATION...AND IN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW. ONE SURFACE
TROUGH IS ALONG 27N84W 23N86W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND
LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN AND AROUND FLORIDA FROM 25N
TO 28N BETWEEN LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND THE WATERS ALONG THE FLORIDA
WEST COAST ALONG 83W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 88W/89W
FROM 25N TO 29N. ISOLATED RAINSHOWERS ARE 27N TO 29N BETWEEN
87W AND 88W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH GOES FROM PUERTO RICO TO 15N70W
TO THE VENEZUELA COAST NEAR 11N70W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS
ARE FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 65W AND 72W. RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA TO 15N
BETWEEN 72W AND 77W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM THE WATERS
NEAR GREAT INAGUA AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA TOWARD THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL AND THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. RAINSHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER CUBA FROM EAST TO WEST...AND FROM THE
HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER TO THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN
HAITI AND JAMAICA. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL CONTINUES FROM THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO HONDURAS.
NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
NORTHWESTERN NICARAGUA TO HONDURAS...AND EASTERN GUATEMALA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N52W TO A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N62W...TO THE UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CENTER THAT IS NEAR GREAT INAGUA. THE WEATHER SITUATION
THAT SURROUNDS TROPICAL DEPRESSION IGOR COVERS THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS 36W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N45W TO
22N46W. A SURFACE TROUGH GOES FROM A 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 22N41W...TO A 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS
NEAR 17N43W TO 14N43W. RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 21N38W...AND FROM 24N TO 26N
BETWEEN 40W AND 42W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N37W
TO 20N50W TO 27N71W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

MT




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