[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 081804
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED SEP 08 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM IGOR WAS UPDATED AT 08/1500 UTC. THE LATEST
ADVISORY AT 1800 UTC PLACES IGOR NEAR 13.7N 23.7W...OR ABOUT 80
MI S OF PRAIA IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING
MOVING W AT 5 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST
AND ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS. THIS SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP
LEVEL MOISTURE AS INDICATED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
BROAD AND ELONGATED SURFACE CYCLONIC FLOW SURROUNDS IGOR AND TWO
MORE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS. IGOR AND THE CLOSEST SURFACE
LOW TO THE NE OF IT ARE GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION FROM 12N TO 20N BETWEEN 17W AND 28W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

NO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OBSERVED OVER THE ATLANTIC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM 7N35W CONTINUING WESTWARD ALONG
8N46W 10N60W TO A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 14N59W TO 6N62W.
SCATTERED WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 50 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS...WHILE THE SURFACE TROUGH IS GENERATING
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION S OF 14N W OF 66W
INCLUDING NORTHERN PORTIONS OF EASTERN VENEZUELA AND GUYANA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED TO HERMINE HAS MOVED
NORTH OUT OF THE GULF INTO TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA REGION. NOW...A
DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS ALOFT HAS MOVED ACROSS THE GULF W OF
86W...PROVIDING OVERALL FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION...EXCEPT FOR THE SW BASIN...WHERE AN ELONGATED UPPER
LEVEL LOW/TROUGH...CURRENTLY OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...IS
ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND SE GULF S OF 27N E OF 86W. THIS UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WNW GENERATING CONVECTION IN THE
EASTERN AND CENTRAL REGIONS OF THE GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48
HRS...WITH THE STRONGEST CONVECTION ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE VIGOROUS REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH OF GASTON IS MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ANALYZED ALONG 70W FROM 15N TO 20N.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION GENERATED FROM THIS
SYSTEM COVERS THE AREA N OF 15N BETWEEN 68W AND 75W. MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION OF GASTON COULD
REAPPEAR OVER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD ACROSS
THE N CARIBBEAN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SPINNING NEAR 21N81W. THIS FEATURE IS
ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOP FROM A FEW DAYS AGO
TO MOST RECENT IMAGE IS SHOWING THE MONSOONAL TROUGH...CURRENTLY
OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTH
CARIBBEAN...GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN S OF 15N. LONG RANGE
COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL LINGER IN
THIS REGION AND BECOME MORE ACTIVE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ALSO
HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING
OVER THE FAR SE BASIN OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN HAS TURNED TO THE EASTERN ATLC...AS TROPICAL
STORM IGOR WAS UPDATED AT 08/1500 UTC...CURRENTLY SOUTH OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. FOR MORE DETAILS REGARDING THIS NEWLY NAMED
STORM...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. BROAD AND ELONGATED SURFACE
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION SURROUNDS IGOR AND TWO MORE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS...A 1010 MB NEAR 20N36W AND A 1008 MB EAST OF
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 16N21W. IGOR AND THE SURFACE LOW EAST OF
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ARE GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION FROM 12N TO 20N BETWEEN 17W AND 28W. THE OTHER
SURFACE LOW IS ONLY GENERATING SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION WITHIN
A 300 NM RADIUS. AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH...CURRENTLY
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND THE REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH OF GASTON
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...ARE ENHANCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SW ATLC BASIN S OF
25N W OF 70W...INCLUDING THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS OF
CUBA...THE BAHAMAS S OF 25N AND ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS.
COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THE CONVECTION IN THIS AREA WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION AREA...BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL RIDGES
DOMINATE THE ATLC AND SUPPORT THE WESTERN ATLC SURFACE 1020 MB
HIGH NEAR 30N70W...AND THE EASTERN ATLC SURFACE 1023 MB HIGH
NEAR 36N25W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA



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