[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 071200
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE SEP 07 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM HERMINE IS CENTERED NEAR 27.7N 98.2W AT 07/1200
UTC OR ABOUT 35 NM SW OF MATHIS TEXAS AND ABOUT 50 NM W OF
CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS MOVING N-NW AT 15 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40
KT WITH GUST TO 50 KT. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC AND THE
FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND FROM JUST N OF BROWNSVILLE TO HOUSTON
TEXAS. SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
COVER THE GULF WATERS FROM 22N-29N BETWEEN 94W-97W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20W S OF 16N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS INDICATED ON THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD
CYCLONIC ROTATION THAT COVERS THE AREA FROM 9N-20N BETWEEN THE
COAST OF W AFRICA AND 25W. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 60 NM OF 15N BETWEEN 20W-24W. SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM
12N-15N BETWEEN 19W-25W.

...ITCZ...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N22W 10N30W TO 9N38W WHILE THE
ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 9N61W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 60 NM
OF 6N FROM 27W-35W AND 90/120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN
FROM 53W-59W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN THIS MORNING REMAINS T.S. HERMINE...SEE
SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER T.S.
HERMINE COVERS MUCH OF THE GULF WATERS DRAWING DRY STABLE AIR S
OVER THE GULF E OF 90W. A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS OFF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO THE GULF ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
NEAR 27N80W TO JUST W OF THE FLORIDA KEYS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 26N TO CUBA E OF 83W ACROSS
THE S FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE W ATLC AND THROUGH THE FLORIDA
STRAITS. THIS SCENARIO IS LEAVING THE GULF BETWEEN 83W-84W UNDER
CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS MOST THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE W
CARIBBEAN WITH NE TO E FLOW ALOFT W OF 80W. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IS
ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 18N TO
OVER CUBA BETWEEN 79W-85W. AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE
CENTRAL ATLC COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 73W. THE AREA BETWEEN
THESE UPPER RIDGES IS DOMINATED BY AN ELONGATED AND NARROW UPPER
LOW CENTERED OVER CUBA NEAR 21N76W EXTENDING S TO 16N78W. THIS
UPPER LOW IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 18N76W
OVER E CUBA NEAR 20N75W INTO THE W ATLC AND IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF CUBA. AN INVERTED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OVER W PANAMA NEAR 9N82W TO
15N80W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF
14N W OF 73W TO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN NE CARIBBEAN N OF 14N E OF 67W INCLUDING
THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO COMPLIMENTS OF THE
1010 MB LOW...REMNANTS OF GASTON LOCATED JUST E OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS S JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR
27N80W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF
28N W OF 77W TO OVER S FLORIDA AND THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 28N-31N W OF 75W TO THE COAST OF
FLORIDA. THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER CUBA NEAR 21N76W EXTENDS
OVER THE W ATLC WITHIN 150 NM OF THE AXIS TO 29N71W SUPPORTING A
SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 24N73W TO OVER CUBA NEAR 20N75W
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 24N TO
OVER CUBA BETWEEN 74W-76W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF 40W IS
DOMINATED BY A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED NEAR 24N58W WITH
STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY STABLE AIR. HOWEVER...BENEATH THIS UPPER
RIDGE IS A 1010 MB LOW...REMNANTS OF GASTON...CENTERED JUST E OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 14N-23N BETWEEN 61W-68W TO OVER THE LEEWARD/
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES MOST
OF THE ATLC N OF 25N E OF 70W ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH WELL N
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. A SECOND UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED W
AFRICA EXTENDING AN AXIS W INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC ALONG 21N TO
40W. BENEATH IS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 21N26W TO
16N33W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 29W-35W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW






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