[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 070557
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE SEP 07 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM HERMINE IS CENTERED NEAR 26.1N 97.7W AT 07/0600
UTC OR ABOUT 9 NM S-SW OF HARLINGEN TEXAS AND ABOUT 17 NM S OF
BROWNSVILLE TEXAS MOVING N-NW AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50
KT WITH GUST TO 60 KT. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC AND THE
FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. DATA FROM THE NOAA DOPPLER RADAR IN
BROWNSVILLE TEXAS INDICATED THAT TROPICAL STORM HERMINE MADE
LANDFALL AROUND 830 PM CDT...0130 UTC...ALONG THE COAST OF NE
MEXICO ABOUT 35 NM S OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS AT LANDFALL WERE ESTIMATED TO BE 56 KT. HEAVY RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND FROM LAGUNA MADRE
MEXICO TO JUST S OF GALVESTON TEXAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE GULF WATERS FROM 22N-28N W OF 94W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19W/20W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS INDICATED ON THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WAVE IS LESS ORGANIZED NOW
THAT IT HAS EMERGED INTO THE E ATLC. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 45 NM OF 14.5N BETWEEN 18W-22W. SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM
12N-16N BETWEEN 20W-24W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 30W-44W.

...ITCZ...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N23W TO 9N30W WHILE THE ITCZ
AXIS CONTINUES TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 9N61W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 60 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ FROM 53W-59W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-20N E OF 19W TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 11N-13N E OF
13W TO THE COAST OF W AFRICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN TONIGHT REMAINS T.S. HERMINE THAT MADE
LANDFALL EARLIER THIS EVENING...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE.
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER T.S. HERMINE COVERS MUCH OF THE
GULF WATERS DRAWING DRY STABLE AIR S OVER THE GULF E OF HERMINE.
A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS S ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO NEAR 15N84W IN THE E GULF
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 26N TO
CUBA E OF 84W ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE W ATLC AND
THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THIS SCENARIO IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF
THE E GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS MOST THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE W
CARIBBEAN WITH NE TO E FLOW ALOFT W OF 77W. AN UPPER RIDGE
ANCHORED IN THE CENTRAL ATLC COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 73W.
THE AREA BETWEEN THESE UPPER RIDGES IS DOMINATED BY AN
ELONGATED...NARROWING UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER CUBA EXTENDING S
TO 16N77W. THIS UPPER LOW IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH
ANALYZED FROM 17N74W THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N74W
INTO THE W ATLC AND GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM OVER CUBA TO OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS. AN
INVERTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 80W FROM OVER PANAMA
TO 13N GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF
14N W OF 80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER
THE LEEWARD AND VIRGIN ISLANDS N OF 14N W OF PUERTO RICO
COMPLIMENTS OF THE 1008 MB LOW...REMNANTS OF GASTON LOCATED
ABOUT 150 NM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS S ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO NEAR 15N84W IN THE E GULF OF
MEXICO GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF
28N W OF 77W TO OVER FLORIDA AND THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE N OF 28N W OF 75W. THE UPPER LOW CENTERED
OVER CUBA NEAR 21N76W EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC WITHIN 150 NM OF
THE AXIS ALONG 24N73W 29N72W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH
ANALYZED FROM 25N74W THROUGH THE WIND PASSAGE INTO THE CARIBBEAN
NEAR 20N74W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 24N73W ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS TO
OVER CUBA NEAR 21N76W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF 40W IS
DOMINATED BY A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED NEAR 24N52W WITH
STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY STABLE AIR. HOWEVER...BENEATH THIS UPPER
RIDGE IS A 1008 MB LOW...REMNANTS OF GASTON...CENTERED ABOUT 150
NM E OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N59W
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 14N-18N
W OF 59W TO OVER THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS. A SURFACE RIDGE
DOMINATES MOST OF THE ATLC N OF 25N E OF 70W ANCHORED BY A 1027
MB HIGH WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. A SECOND UPPER RIDGE IS
ANCHORED W AFRICA EXTENDING AN AXIS W INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC
ALONG 21N TO 38W. BENEATH IS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM
21N29W TO 16N31W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM OF 17.5N BETWEEN 30W-33W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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