[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070027 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON SEP 06 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM HERMINE IS CENTERED NEAR 24.8N 97.1W AT 07/0000
UTC OR ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM NNE OF LA PESCA MEXICO....OR ABOUT
80 MI...130 KM SSE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS...MOVING NNW AT 13 KT.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KT WITH GUST TO 65 KT. PLEASE SEE
LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 23N-25N BETWEEN 95W-98W. IN
ADDITION SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 22N-28N BETWEEN
94W-99W. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE INLAND OVER NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO OR EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS BY TONIGHT...COMPUTER MODELS
SUGGEST THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO THIS SYSTEM WILL LINGER
OVER THE NW GULF THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

A 1008 MB LOW...REMNANT OF GASTON...IS ABOUT 250 NM E OF THE
NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 17N57W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A LOW LEVEL SWIRL REMAINS WITH
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 58W-60W.
UPPER LEVEL WINDS AND MOISTURE ARE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT
PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18W S OF 18N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT.
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING AROUND
THE WAVE AXIS. THIS WAVE IS ALSO EMBEDDED IN A SURGE OF DEEP
LEVEL MOISTURE AS NOTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
WAVE FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 15W-19W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-15N BETWEEN 18W-24W.

...ITCZ...

A MONSOON TROUGH IS S OF 20N E OF 40W TO W AFRICA. AN ITCZ AXIS
CONTINUES WESTWARD FROM 9N40W TO 10N60W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION
MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 52W-55W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO..
T.S. HERMINE IS IN THE PROCESS OF MAKING LANDFALL OVER THE NE
MEXICAN COAST WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF CONVECTION. SEE THE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ALSO N OF THE STORM ALONG THE TEXAS COAST N OF 28N W OF 93W.
ELSEWHERE...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER CENTRAL
AND SOUTH FLORIDA...THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND W CUBA S OF
27N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER
THE W GULF ENHANCING CONVECTION. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS COVERS THE GULF EXCEPT OVER THE NE GULF
N OF 27N WHERE STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED. EXPECT...CONVECTION
TO PERSIST OVER THE SAME GENERAL AREAS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A RATHER LAX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA
THUS TRADEWINDS ARE MOSTLY 10-15 KT. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER THE N CARIBBEAN OVER JAMAICA AND CUBA BETWEEN
75W-85W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM
PANAMA TO GUATEMALA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE E CARIBBEAN HAS
SOUTHERLY FLOW E OF 67W, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED E CUBA
NEAR 20N74W MOVING W. THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W HAS NE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW. EXPECT...THE REMNANTS OF GASTON TO TRAVERSE THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
39N40W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SE TO THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 28N75W.
ELSEWHERE...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS
ALONG 26N72W 20N73W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE
TROUGH. ANOTHER TROUGH IS W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG
22N27W 16N30W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM W OF
THE TROUGH. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 25N50W WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER W AFRICA
NEAR 21N16W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





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