[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060551
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON SEP 06 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE SURFACE LOW OFF VERACRUZ MEXICO WAS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TEN AT 06/0300 UTC. TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN IS
CENTERED NEAR 20.9N 95.0W AT 06/0600 UTC OR ABOUT 235 NM SE OF
LA PESCA MEXICO AND ABOUT 175 NM E-SE OF TAMPICO MEXICO MOVING N
AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KT WITH GUST TO 35 KT. PLEASE SEE
LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30/45 NM OF LINE
FROM 23N95W TO INLAND OVER S MEXICO NEAR 18N93W WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERING THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA S OF 24N W OF 93W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO.


A 1009 MB LOW...REMNANT OF GASTON...IS ABOUT 450 NM E OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 17N52W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES A LOW LEVEL SWIRL WITH A BAND OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 45/60 NM OF LINE FROM
THE LOW NEAR 17N52W ALONG 17N56W TO 20N59W. UPPER LEVEL WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR SO AND THE MOISTURE SURROUNDING THE LOW SHOULD
GRADUALLY INCREASE AS IT MOVES W AT 10-15 KT. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS COULD BEGIN TO
AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
INTERESTS IN THOSE ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE REMAINS INLAND OVER W AFRICA ALONG 12W MOVING W
NEAR 10 KT. A WEAK 1012 MB LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 10N.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 8N29W 7N34W 10N48W INTO THE CARIBBEAN
OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS 13N61W TO ACROSS THE N PORTION OF
SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 11N69W THEN ACROSS PANAMA INTO THE E PACIFIC
REGION. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING OF W AFRICA FROM
14N-19N TO 20W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE ARE WITHIN 125 NM
OF LINE FROM W AFRICA NEAR 11N15W TO 4N35W AND WITHIN 90 NM OF
THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 36W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN TONIGHT IS THE NEWLY FORMED T.D. TEN IN THE
SW GULF...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
COVERS THE E HALF OF THE U.S. AND INTO THE N GULF TO 28N
SUPPORTING A WEAK...MEANDERING STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS
ACROSS S GEORGIA INTO THE GULF NEAR PANAMA CITY FLORIDA TO
INLAND OVER LOUISIANA AND NEW ORLEANS TO NEAR LAKE CHARLES. AN
UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED NEAR T.D.TEN EXTENDING AN AXIS E-NE
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND S FLORIDA TO OVER THE FAR W ATLC
PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO ENHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM
24N94W TO NEAR 28N84W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE S GULF S OF 25N E OF 91W THROUGH THE
FLORIDA STRAITS AND OVER EXTREME S FLORIDA PENINSULA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN
WITH E FLOW ALOFT MAINLY N OF 17N W OF 77W. AN UPPER RIDGE
ANCHORED IN THE CENTRAL ATLC COVERS THE FAR E CARIBBEAN E OF
66W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LOW
CENTERED JUST N OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 21N70W. THIS
UPPER LOW IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 13N67W
THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE INTO THE W ATLC. THE UPPER LOW IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF A LINE
FROM 16N71W TO JUST OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 18N87W. THE
ITCZ IS GENERATING ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA
AND PANAMA BETWEEN 74W-80W. THIS SCENARIO IS LEAVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN TRANQUIL TONIGHT WITH THE E CARIBBEAN
UNDER REMARKABLY CLEAR SKIES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE 1009 MB REMNANT LOW OF GASTON REMAINS A CONCERN AS IT MOVES
TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. THE
UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS INTO THE FAR
W ATLC W OF 77W. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
TO ENHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 24N W OF 78W TO
THE COAST OF THE SE U.S. AND TO OVER THE FAR S FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS CENTERED
JUST N OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 21N70W AND COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC S OF 30N BETWEEN 65W-77W SUPPORTING A
SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 24N67W THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE
INTO THE CARIBBEAN. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF 35W IS
DOMINATED BY A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED NEAR 25N51W AND STRONG
SUBSIDENCE/DRY STABLE AIR. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES MOST OF THE
ATLC N OF 23N ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH WELL N OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA. A SECOND SMALL UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER
MOROCCO EXTENDING AN AXIS SW INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC TO NEAR
17N30W. BENEATH IS A 1009 MB LOW CENTERED N OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS NEAR 20N23W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE
WESTERN MOST ISLAND TO 12N28W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE
FROM 22N22W TO 17N28W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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