[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051203
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN SEP 05 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1009 MB LOW...REMNANT OF GASTON...IS ABOUT 700 NM E OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 17N49W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES A LOW LEVEL SWIRL WITH SMALL CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION TO THE W FROM
15N-18N BETWEEN 50W-54W. ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY
LIMITED...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
RE-DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD
RE-FORM IN THIS AREA LATER TODAY OR MONDAY. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COVERS THE SW GULF WHERE A SURFACE
TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM A 1007 MB LOW ALONG THE COAST OF S
MEXICO NEAR VERACRUZ N ALONG 23N95W THEN NW TO OVER S TEXAS NEAR
BROWNSVILLE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE
AREA S OF 27N W OF 89W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO. ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 27N E OF 89W.
ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY DISORGANIZED ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
NW AT 5-10 KT.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE REMAINS INLAND OVER AFRICA ALONG 9W MOVING W NEAR
10 KT. THE SURFACE LOW IS NO LONGER DISCERNIBLE AND THE WAVE IS
VOID OF ANY CONVECTION.

...ITCZ...

A MONSOONAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM W AFRICA NEAR 20N16W ALONG
16N22W 10N26W TO 6N35W WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS BEGINS 6N39W ALONG
11N55W TO 10N62W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
A 60 NM RADIUS OF 19N22W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE
FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 17W-21W AND FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 30W-55W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE PRIMARY FOCUS THIS MORNING FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO IS THE
SURFACE TROUGH/LOW IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. A LONGWAVE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERING MOST OF THE E CONUS DIPS S TO THE N
GULF COAST SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE W
ATLC ACROSS SE GEORGIA INTO THE GULF OVER TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA TO
THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA OF LOUISIANA. A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OFF THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR 29N86W TO
NEAR 25N87W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS JUST TO THE SE OVER THE FAR
SE GULF ANCHORED OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 23N82W PROVIDING
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO ENHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE MOST OF THE E GULF S OF THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY E OF 91W
INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA WHICH IS REMARKABLE CLEAR THIS MORNING. A SECOND
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE FAR SW GULF NEAR 21N93W
COVERING THE SW GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LOW DOMINATES MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN CENTERED JUST S
OF W PUERTO RICO/MONA PASSAGE NEAR 18N67W COVERING THE AREA E OF
80W AND INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. A SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE SW OF
THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W TO OFF THE
COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR 12N82W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH.
THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS COVERS THE W
CARIBBEAN GIVING THE AREA NE FLOW ALOFT. THIS IS PROVIDING
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 15N BETWEEN
PUERTO RICO AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL LEAVING THE E CARIBBEAN
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS COVERS THE W ATLC ANCHORED IN THE
FLORIDA STRAITS EXTENDING AN AXIS NE TO BEYOND 32N72W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC IS COVERED BY THE UPPER LOW CENTERED S
OF PUERTO RICO/MONA PASSAGE TO 27N BETWEEN 57W-76W. A BROAD
UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED NEAR
24N43W WITH MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR. A
SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC WATERS N OF 20N ANCHORED BY A
1021 MB HIGH N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 34N43W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW






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