[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050554
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN SEP 05 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM EARL IS BECOMING EXTRA-TROPICAL AT 05/0300 UTC
AND IS CENTERED NEAR 50.7N 59.2W AT 05/0300 UTC OR ABOUT 155 NM
SW OF MARYS HARBOUR LABRADOR MOVING N-NE AT 40 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED
IS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED
BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
NFDHSFAT1/FZNT01 KWBC FOR MORE DETAILS.

A 1008 MB LOW...REMNANT OF GASTON...IS ABOUT 800 NM E OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 17N48W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES A LOW LEVEL SWIRL WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION TO THE W FROM 15N-19N
BETWEEN 49W-52W. ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY LIMITED...
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR RE-DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD RE-FORM IN THIS AREA
LATER TODAY OR MONDAY. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COVERS THE SW GULF WHERE A SURFACE
TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 27N87W ALONG 23N94W TO A 1008 MB LOW
INLAND OVER S MEXICO NEAR VERACRUZ. HEAVY SHOWERS/NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS COVERS THE AREA S OF 22N TO INLAND OVER MEXICO/
YUCATAN PENINSULA BETWEEN 90W-93W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH. ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY DISORGANIZED
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE
OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS AS IT MOVES NW AT 5-10 KT.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND OVER AFRICA ALONG 8W/9W MOVING W NEAR 10
KT WITH A 1011 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 8N.

THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS JUST E OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS
NOW A MONSOONAL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR 20N20W JUST E OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 12N24W TO 4N36W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 16N23W
TO INLAND OVER MAURITANIA AFRICA NEAR 19N16W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN
27W-39W.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS BEGINS W OF THE MONSOONAL TROUGH ABOVE NEAR 7N42W
9N51W 8N61W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
90/120 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 41W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE PRIMARY FOCUS TONIGHT FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO IS THE SURFACE
TROUGH/LOW IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. A LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH COVERING MOST OF THE E CONUS DIPS S TO THE N GULF COAST
SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM A WEAK 1010 MB
LOW INLAND OVER SE GEORGIA INTO THE GULF NEAR PANAMA CITY
FLORIDA TO JUST S OF THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA OF LOUISIANA. A
WEAKENING SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OFF THE
LONGWAVE SE LOUISIANA TO N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 25N87W.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE FAR SW GULF NEAR
21N95W. A WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH IS OFF THE TEXAS/NE MEXICO
COAST EXTENDING FROM 27N92W TO 23N97W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A SECOND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE FAR SE GULF ANCHORED OVER THE FLORIDA
STRAITS NEAR 24N81W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LOW DOMINATES MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN CENTERED JUST S
OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 17N66W COVERING THE AREA E OF 80W AND INTO
THE SW TROPICAL ATLC. A SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE SW OF THE UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 9N75W TO OFF THE COAST OF
NICARAGUA NEAR 14N82W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 200 NM NE OF THE TROUGH WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS S OF THE TROUGH TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. THE
UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS COVERS THE W
CARIBBEAN GIVING THE AREA NE FLOW ALOFT. THIS IS PROVIDING
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
INLAND OVER CUBA AND WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE S COAST OF CUBA
BETWEEN 78W-85W. THE NE FLOW IS ALSO GIVING THE N/CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY N OF 16N BETWEEN 67W-81W LEAVING THE E CARIBBEAN UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS COVERS THE W ATLC ANCHORED IN THE
FLORIDA STRAITS EXTENDING AN AXIS NE TO BEYOND 32N72W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC IS COVERED BY THE UPPER LOW CENTERED S
OF PUERTO RICO TO 27N BETWEEN 55W-75W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED NEAR 23N42W WITH
MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR. A SURFACE RIDGE
DOMINATES THE ATLC WATERS N OF 20N ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF 1022 MB
HIGHS N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AND A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 27N67W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW




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