[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT43 KNHC 032035
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM FIONA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082010
500 PM AST FRI SEP 03 2010

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT FIONA IS WEAKENING.  THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION IS BECOMING DISTORTED WITH MULTIPLE SWIRLS...AND ONLY A
MEAGER AMOUNT OF CONVECTION REMAINS.  SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS ARE
DROPPING...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 35 KT.  FURTHER
WEAKENING IS LIKELY DUE TO STRONG NORTHERLY SHEAR.  DISSIPATION IS
PROBABLE BY SUNDAY...IF NOT SOONER...OR THE SYSTEM COULD DEGENERATE
INTO A REMNANT LOW AS EARLY AS TONIGHT IF CONVECTION DOES NOT
REDEVELOP SOON.  THE CHANCES OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS
OCCURRING IN BERMUDA APPEAR TO BE DROPPING.

FIONA HAS TURNED A LITTLE MORE TO THE RIGHT AND IS NOW MOVING
030/12. A SMALL SHIFT IN THE GUIDANCE HAS OCCURRED...WITH ALL OF THE
MODELS NOW SHOWING THE CENTER PASSING JUST TO THE EAST OF BERMUDA.
THIS APPEARS TO BE DUE TO FIONA BECOMING A RATHER SHALLOW SYSTEM
THAT IS BEING PRIMARILY STEERED BY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND EARL.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE...BUT STILL PASSES CLOSE TO BERMUDA.  GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE THAT THE WEAK SYSTEM SHOULD INCREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED AS
IT MOVES AWAY FROM BERMUDA AND DECAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      03/2100Z 30.0N  65.5W    35 KT
 12HR VT     04/0600Z 31.6N  64.7W    30 KT
 24HR VT     04/1800Z 33.6N  63.5W    25 KT
 36HR VT     05/0600Z 36.4N  61.7W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48HR VT     05/1800Z 39.6N  59.6W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72HR VT     06/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

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