[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 031803
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI SEP 03 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE EARL IS CENTERED NEAR 37.5N 72.5W AT 03/1800 UTC ABOUT
250 NM S-SW OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS MOVING N-NE AT 18 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 961 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. SEE LATEST NHC
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS OF
37.5N72.5W. HOWEVER...RAIN AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS COVER A
LARGER AREA FROM 34N-43N W OF 67W TO INLAND ALONG THE COAST FROM
CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA TO BOSTON MASSACHUSETTS.

TROPICAL STORM FIONA IS CENTERED NEAR 29.5N 65.9 AT 03/1800 UTC
OR ABOUT 175 NM S-SW OF BERMUDA MOVING N-NE AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE
PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC
AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS
PARTIALLY EXPOSED ON FIONA WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN 65W-67W.

THE REMNANT LOW GASTON IS NEAR 14N45W AT 03/1200 UTC IS LOCATED
ABOUT HALFWAY BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND THE LESSER
ANTILLES. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FAVOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD RE-FORM AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 9 KT
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 39W-45W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 19N17W THROUGH A 1008 MB LOW NEAR
14N19W TO 8N22W MOVING NW NEAR 10 KT. BROAD LOW LEVEL MONSOONAL
TROUGH EXISTS OVER THE TROPICAL E ATLC E OF 30W COVERING THIS
WAVE AND ENHANCING CONVECTION. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH EMBEDDED
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA W OF THE
WAVE FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 19W-22W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 13N-15N BETWEEN 22W-25W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 10N22W 8N27W 10N40W 8N53W TO 5N59W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 24W-31W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 41W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW IS ROUGHLY CENTERED OVER THE W GULF NEAR
25N92W EXTENDING AN AXIS FROM NEAR NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA TO THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 20N94W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED
FROM 22N95W TO THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 19N94W. WHILE ONLY A
WEAK WIND SHIFT IS NOTED WITH THIS SURFACE TROUGH FEATURE
MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED N-NE TO OVER MUCH OF
THE GULF GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 84W-89W AND W OF 28N W OF
89W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF
ANCHORED OVER THE BAHAMAS. OTHERWISE...THE N GULF IS UNDER A
RELATIVELY WEAK RIDGE AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS S
FLORIDA TO ALONG THE N GULF COAST TO OVER S LOUISIANA WITH A
1016 MB HIGH IN THE E GULF NEAR 28N85W. LIGHT ELY WINDS ARE
FORECAST THROUGH TODAY UNTIL A WEAK COLD FRONT STALLS OVER THE
NE GULF WATERS SAT THROUGH SUN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE BAHAMAS COVERS MOST OF
THE CARIBBEAN W OF 70W AND EXTENDS TO OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO
PROVIDING MOSTLY E TO SE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. ABUNDANCE OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS COMBINED WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ARE
GENERATING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 72W-77W AND IN THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM
10N-13N W OF 82W TO INLAND OVER COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA. THE
REMAINDER OF THE W CARIBBEAN IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES. A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN
E 70W TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA. THIS IS FUNNELING IN DRY STABLE
AIR ALOFT N OF 14N E OF 62W LEAVING THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND PUERTO RICO REMARKABLY CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON. DIFFLUENCE TO
THE SW OF THE UPPER TROUGH ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 67W-69W.
THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT COVERS THE W ATLC EXTENDS OVER THE N
CARIBBEAN N OF 15N E OF JAMAICA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
HURRICANE EARL REMAINS THE MAIN FEATURE OF CONCERN OVER THE NW
ATLC AND NEW ENGLAND STATES THIS AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM FIONA
IS TO THE SE OF EARL OVER THE OPEN WATERS AND IS FORECAST TO
TRACK ACROSS BERMUDA SAT MORNING. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE.
BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE E GULF OF MEXICO AND THE W
CARIBBEAN IS ANCHORED OVER THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N77W AND COVERS
THE W ATLC W OF 70W. A BROAD E/W UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF ATLC S OF 30N E OF 50W ANCHORED NEAR 24N27W. A
SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES MOST OF THE ATLC WITH A WEAK REMNANT
SURFACE TROUGH SPLITTING THE AREA EXTENDING FROM 31N33W TO
25N41W AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS S OF FIONA COVER THE W ATLC
S OF 26N TO ACROSS THE S FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. A NARROW SWATH OF DRY SAHARAN AIR ALOFT IS NOTED ON
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY TO THE E OF FIONA AND OVER THE FAR NE
CARIBBEAN FROM 14N TO BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 60W-65W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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