[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 021804
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU SEP 02 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AS OF 02/1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF MAJOR HURRICANE EARL IS NEAR
31.7N 75.2W...OR ABOUT 245 MI S OF CAPE HATTERAS IN NORTH
CAROLINA...MOVING NORTH 16 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 943 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 110 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE EMBEDDED IN AN
AREA OF ELEVATED VALUES OF MOISTURE NOTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
29N TO 34N BETWEEN 71W AND 78W. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC
AND THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FIONA AT 02/1800 UTC IS NEAR 25.0N
66.3W...OR ABOUT 520 MI SSW OF BERMUDA...MOVING NORTHWESTWARD 15
KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 21N TO 26N
BETWEEN 64W AND 69W. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT...WITH A MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST FORECAST BY
LATE FRIDAY...EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR BERMUDA LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY
SATURDAY. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY
UNDER MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION GASTON AT 02/1500 UTC IS NEAR
14.0N 38.9W...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST 6 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. THIS SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
SURGE OF ELEVATED MOISTURE VALUES NOTED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 8N TO 18N BETWEEN 36W AND 43W. PLEASE READ THE LATEST
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23
KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED NEAR THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA TO THE
N OF THE ITCZ ALONG 17W S OF 17N. LOW LEVEL ELONGATED CYCLONIC
TURNING IS OBSERVED IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS. THIS
SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED IN A BROAD REGION OF ELEVATED VALUES OF DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE AS NOTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS E OF 27W FROM 5N TO 15N. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION
IS ALSO RELATED TO THE ITCZ.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM WEST AFRICA OVER GUINEA NEAR
10N14W WESTWARD ALONG 7N24W TO 10N35W...RESUMING S OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION GASTON NEAR 9N40W CONTINUING W ALONG 7N51W TO 11N61W.
INCLUDING THE CONVECTION GENERATED BY THE TROPICAL EAVE
MENTIONED ABOVE...SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF WEST AFRICA E OF 27W
FROM 5N TO 15N. SCATTERED WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 40W AND 61W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
MID/UPPER LEVEL SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS COMBINED WITH WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE CENTRAL BASIN NEAR 26N91W. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AROUND
THIS FEATURE IS DRAWING ENERGY FROM A UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
GULF S OF 27N BETWEEN 83W AND 91W AFFECTING THE COASTAL WATERS
SURROUNDING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE NORTH GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48
HOURS. DRY AIR ALOFT IS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION...PROVIDING
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE PASSAGE OF TROPICAL STORM FIONA HAS LEFT AND AREA OF DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN NOTED ON TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THIS MOIST REGION IS INTERACTING
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THIS REGION TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 16N BETWEEN
66W AND 70W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS FROM THE N
CENTRAL TO THE SW BASIN IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 17N BETWEEN 74W AND 80W. DRY AIR
ALOFT IS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION...PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. MONSOONAL MOISTURE OVER THE
FAR EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC IS EXTENDING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR SW BASIN S OF 11N W OF 75W.
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE PROMINENT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MAJOR HURRICANE EARL REMAINS THE MAIN FEATURE OF CONCERN OVER
THE FAR WESTERN ATLC AFFECTING THE COASTAL WATERS OF UNITED
STATES N OF 32N. TROPICAL STORM FIONA IS TO THE FAR SE OF EARL
OVER OPEN WATERS. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS
REGARDING THESE TWO SYSTEMS. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE ATLC E OF 62W N OF 18N...ANCHORED BY A 1024
MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N59W AND ANOTHER 1020 MB HIGH NEAR
35N21W. DRY SAHARAN AIR ALOFT IS ALSO NOTED ON SATELLITE VISIBLE
E OF 60W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS IN BETWEEN THESE TWO
REGIONS OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ENTERING
THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH 32N32W TO 25N45W. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 20 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA



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