[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021201
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU SEP 02 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL AT 02/1200 UTC IS NEAR 30.1N
74.8W...OR ABOUT 350 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE COASTAL WATERS
OF NORTH CAROLINA...MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD 16 KT. THE
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 932 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT. PLEASE
READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC AND THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG
RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 28N TO 31N BETWEEN 72W
AND 75W. OTHER RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ELSEWHERE FROM 27N BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W.

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FIONA AT 02/1200 UTC IS NEAR 23.6N
65.5W...OR ABOUT 655 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF HURRICANE EARL.
FIONA IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD 15 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
ARE 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC
AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS OF 22N66W.

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GASTON AT 02/0900 UTC IS NEAR
13.5N 38.2W...MOVING WESTWARD 8 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
ARE 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC
AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 38W AND 41W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

NO OTHER TROPICAL WAVES ARE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM GUINEA NEAR 10N14W TO 9N20W 13N34W...FROM 11N40W TO
8N50W BEYOND 10N61W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 17W AND 26W...AND FROM 11N TO
13N BETWEEN 18W AND 21W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 26W AND
46W...FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 54W AND 63W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA WITH A 26N91W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER AND ITS ACCOMPANYING NORTH-TO-
SOUTH TROUGH. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE OPEN GULF WATERS.
THE EARLIER PRECIPITATION THAT COVERED MEXICO FROM THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND BEYOND
HAS DIMINISHED. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME PRECIPITATION STILL
EXISTS IN THAT AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN
ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM 21N TO 27W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
TROPICAL STORM FIONA HAS BEEN AFFECTING EVERYTHING IN THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD. BROAD
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW MOVES FROM NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA...
TOWARD THE WEST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THEN IT EXITS THE
AREA ACROSS NICARAGUA INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND FROM THE AREA OF LAKE
MARACAIBO OF NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA...
INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 75W...
AND IN THE COASTAL WATERS/COASTAL PLAINS FROM COSTA RICA TO
EL SALVADOR.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 24N TO THE WEST OF 69W IS
COVERED BY HURRICANE EARL. THE AREA THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF
27N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W IS COVERED BY TROPICAL STORM FIONA.
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
34N42W TO 26N48W TO 19N57W. A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
32N35W TO 29N40W TO 27N47W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
15 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 26N495W 29N40W BEYOND 32N34W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES AROUND A RIDGE THAT GOES FROM A 1018 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 35N23W...TO 30N35W...CURVING
NORTHWESTWARD TO 29N54W...AND BEYOND A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS
NEAR 33N61W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT




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