[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS81 KBOX 020515
HLSBOX

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE EARL LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
115 AM EDT THU SEP 2 2010

...HURRICANE EARL APPROACHING SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT
LOCATIONS AND COASTAL WATER LEGS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND
MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND COASTAL WATERS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A HURRICANE WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
BARNSTABLE MA...DUKES MA AND NANTUCKET MA.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A HURRICANE WATCH CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS
OF MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
EASTERN ESSEX MA...SUFFOLK MA...EASTERN NORFOLK MA...EASTERN
PLYMOUTH MA...SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA...SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA...
SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI...EASTERN KENT RI...BRISTOL RI...
WASHINGTON RI...NEWPORT RI AND BLOCK ISLAND RI.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR
PORTIONS OF MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND.

PLEASE CHECK THE LATEST PUBLIC AND MARINE FORECASTS FOR DETAILED
INFORMATION ABOUT ADDITIONAL HAZARDS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 12 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 27.8N...LONGITUDE 73.8W. THIS WAS ABOUT 950 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NANTUCKET MA. STORM MOTION WAS NNW OR 330
DEGREES AT 18 MPH. STORM INTENSITY WAS 140 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
HURRICANE EARL IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE AND IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. EARL IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTH
LATE TODAY THEN NORTHEAST FRIDAY TOWARD SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND.
THE LATEST TRACK PROJECTION HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST AND
EARL IS NOW EXPECTED TO TRACK WITHIN 50 MILES OF NANTUCKET FRIDAY
NIGHT.

EARL WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS IT MOVES
OVER COOLER WATERS BUT MAY STILL BE A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE AS IT
MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT.

IT IS TOO EARLY TO PROVIDE EXACT WIND AND SURGE FORECAST VALUES
FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS. A GENERAL CONCERN SHOULD BE FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST EXTENSIVE DAMAGE SOMEWHERE WITHIN SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TAUNTON AROUND 7 AM EDT...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

ANZ231-232-254-255-030515-
/O.CON.KBOX.HU.A.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
CAPE COD BAY-NANTUCKET SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PROVINCETOWN MA TO CHATHAM MA TO NANTUCKET MA
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS EXTENDING OUT TO 25 NM SOUTH OF MARTHAS VINEYARD
AND NANTUCKET-
115 AM EDT THU SEP 2 2010

...HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...
A HURRICANE WATCH CONTINUES.

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS UP TO 22
PERCENT. ALSO...THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT THIS
TIME IS UP TO 76 PERCENT.

...WINDS AND SEAS...
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CAPE COD COASTAL WATERS
AND SOUTH AND EAST OF NANTUCKET WHERE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS TO 65
KT ARE POSSIBLE. WINDS TO 85 KT ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS
SOUTH AND EAST OF NANTUCKET. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 40 TO
60 KT ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE REST OF THE MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE
ISLAND COASTAL WATERS. THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD OCCUR
LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS HURRICANE EARL MAKES ITS CLOSEST
APPROACH TO NANTUCKET. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY BY SATURDAY MORNING.

SEAS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY FRIDAY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS EARL
APPROACHES. DANGEROUS SEAS UP TO 30 FT ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS SOUTH AND EAST OF NANTUCKET AND EAST OF
CAPE COD. SEAS WILL REMAIN TURBULENT ON SATURDAY AFTER EARL
PASSES WITH SOUTHEAST SWELLS OF 12 TO 18 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
WATERS IN THE MORNING...SUBSIDING TO 8 TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.

$$

MAZ022>024-030515-
/O.CON.KBOX.HU.A.1007.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
BARNSTABLE MA-DUKES MA-NANTUCKET MA-
115 AM EDT THU SEP 2 2010

...HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...
A HURRICANE WATCH CONTINUES.

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS 9 TO
18 PERCENT. ALSO...THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT
THIS TIME IS UP TO 70 PERCENT.

...WINDS...
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
WHERE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OF 75 MPH OR GREATER ARE POSSIBLE. THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT
NANTUCKET. FOR THE REST OF THE MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND
COASTLINE...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 40 TO 60 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS CLOSEST TO THE CAPE COD CANAL.
THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD OCCUR LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
EVENING...THEN DIMINISH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY
MORNING. GIVEN TREES REMAIN FULLY LEAVED COMBINED WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL...WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE MAY DOWN OR UPROOT TREES
ESPECIALLY ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
WITH THE PRESENT TRACK PROJECTION...STORM SURGE FLOODING IS NOT A
MAJOR CONCERN ALONG THE MASSACHUSETTS OR RHODE ISLAND COASTS. A
STORM SURGE OF 2 TO 3 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG NANTUCKET
HARBOR...THE EAST SIDE OF CHATHAM...AND THE NORTHEAST FACING
COASTLINE OF MARTHA/S VINEYARD AROUND THE TIME OF THE FRIDAY
EVENING HIGH TIDE. ALONG THE REST OF THE MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE
ISLAND COAST...A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 2 FEET IS POSSIBLE.

ALTHOUGH A LOW RISK AT THIS TIME...MORE SERIOUS COASTAL FLOODING
COULD OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT IN WELLFLEET AND PROVINCETOWN HARBOR...
IF EARL SHOULD TRACK FURTHER WEST AND PASS VERY NEAR THE OUTER
CAPE.

...RIP CURRENTS...
HIGH SURF AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY ALONG
THE RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS SHORELINE. THIS
INCLUDES CAPE COD...NANTUCKET AND MARTHAS VINEYARD. THE WORST OF
THESE DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS WILL BE FRIDAY AS HURRICANE EARL
MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. EARL WILL EXIT
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SATURDAY...HOWEVER THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND OCEAN WATERS WILL REMAIN VERY TURBULENT INTO THE WEEKEND
DESPITE IMPROVING WEATHER CONDITIONS. THEREFORE EXPECT HIGH SURF
AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS TO PERSIST INTO AT LEAST SATURDAY.
BEACH GOERS SHOULD CHECK WITH LOCAL BEACH PATROLS AND LIFEGUARDS
BEFORE ENTERING THE WATER. SWIMMING RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH
POSSIBLE BEACH CLOSURES DURING THIS TIME. THE MOST DANGEROUS SURF
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT SOUTH AND EAST FACING OCEAN EXPOSED
BEACHES.

$$

MAZ007-015-016-019>021-RIZ002-004>008-030515-
/O.CON.KBOX.TR.A.1007.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
EASTERN ESSEX MA-SUFFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-
EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-
SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-EASTERN KENT RI-BRISTOL RI-WASHINGTON RI-
NEWPORT RI-BLOCK ISLAND RI-
115 AM EDT THU SEP 2 2010

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...
A HURRICANE WATCH CONTINUES.

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS LESS THAN OR
EQUAL TO 10 PERCENT. ALSO...THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS UP TO 56 PERCENT.

...WINDS...
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
WHERE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OF 75 MPH OR GREATER ARE POSSIBLE. THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT
NANTUCKET. FOR THE REST OF THE MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND
COASTLINE...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 40 TO 60 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS CLOSEST TO THE CAPE COD CANAL.
THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD OCCUR LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
EVENING...THEN DIMINISH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY
MORNING. GIVEN TREES REMAIN FULLY LEAVED COMBINED WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL...WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE MAY DOWN OR UPROOT TREES
ESPECIALLY ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
WITH THE PRESENT TRACK PROJECTION...STORM SURGE FLOODING IS NOT A
MAJOR CONCERN ALONG THE MASSACHUSETTS OR RHODE ISLAND COASTS. A
STORM SURGE OF 2 TO 3 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG NANTUCKET
HARBOR...THE EAST SIDE OF CHATHAM...AND THE NORTHEAST FACING
COASTLINE OF MARTHA/S VINEYARD AROUND THE TIME OF THE FRIDAY
EVENING HIGH TIDE. ALONG THE REST OF THE MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE
ISLAND COAST...A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 2 FEET IS POSSIBLE.

ALTHOUGH A LOW RISK AT THIS TIME...MORE SERIOUS COASTAL FLOODING
COULD OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT IN WELLFLEET AND PROVINCETOWN HARBOR...
IF EARL SHOULD TRACK FURTHER WEST AND PASS VERY NEAR THE OUTER
CAPE.

...INLAND FLOODING...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IS ANTICIPATED OVER MUCH OF
EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE
WEST. MUCH OF THIS RAIN MAY FALL IN A 12 HOUR PERIOD LATE FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS RAINFALL WOULD RESULT IN MINOR URBAN AND
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. ISOLATED MINOR SMALL STREAM FLOODING IS
ALSO POSSIBLE.

HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT LARGER RAINFALL TOTALS COULD
OCCUR OVER EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND WHICH WOULD
PRODUCE AREAS OF MINOR RIVER AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING...WITH
ISOLATED MODERATE FLOODING. SIGNIFICANT URBAN FLOODING WOULD BE
POSSIBLE.

...RIP CURRENTS...
HIGH SURF AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY ALONG
THE RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS SHORELINE. THIS
INCLUDES CAPE COD...NANTUCKET AND MARTHAS VINEYARD. THE WORST OF
THESE DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS WILL BE FRIDAY AS HURRICANE EARL
APPROACHES SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. EARL WILL EXIT INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES SATURDAY...HOWEVER THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OCEAN WATERS
WILL REMAIN VERY TURBULENT INTO THE WEEKEND DESPITE IMPROVING
WEATHER CONDITIONS. THEREFORE EXPECT HIGH SURF AND DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS TO PERSIST INTO AT LEAST SATURDAY. BEACH GOERS SHOULD
CHECK WITH LOCAL BEACH PATROLS AND LIFEGUARDS BEFORE ENTERING THE
WATER. SWIMMING RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH POSSIBLE BEACH
CLOSURES DURING THIS TIME. THE MOST DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT SOUTH AND EAST FACING OCEAN EXPOSED BEACHES.

$$

ANZ230-233>237-250-251-256-030515-
/O.CON.KBOX.TR.A.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
BOSTON HARBOR-VINEYARD SOUND-BUZZARDS BAY-RHODE ISLAND SOUND-
NARRAGANSETT BAY-BLOCK ISLAND SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS EAST OF IPSWICH BAY AND THE STELLWAGEN BANK
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-MASSACHUSETTS BAY AND IPSWICH BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MONTAUK NY TO MARTHAS VINEYARD EXTENDING OUT
TO 20 NM SOUTH OF BLOCK ISLAND-
115 AM EDT THU SEP 2 2010

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...
A HURRICANE WATCH CONTINUES.

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS UP TO 17
PERCENT. ALSO...THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT THIS
TIME IS UP TO 69 PERCENT.

...WINDS AND SEAS...
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CAPE COD COASTAL WATERS
AND SOUTH AND EAST OF NANTUCKET WHERE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS TO 65
KT ARE POSSIBLE. WINDS TO 80 KT ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS SOUTH
AND EAST OF NANTUCKET. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 40 TO 60 KT
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE REST OF THE MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND
COASTAL WATERS. THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD OCCUR LATE
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS HURRICANE EARL MAKES ITS CLOSEST
APPROACH TO NANTUCKET. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY BY SATURDAY MORNING.

SEAS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY FRIDAY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS EARL
APPROACHES. DANGEROUS SEAS UP TO 30 FT ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS EAST OF NANTUCKET AND CAPE COD. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AND SHIFT TO THE WEST SATURDAY MORNING...HOWEVER SEAS
WILL REMAIN TURBULENT WITH SOUTHEAST SWELLS OF 12 TO 18 FT ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST WATERS...SUBSIDING TO 8 TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.

$$

KJC





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