[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS82 KMHX 011941
HLSMHX

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE EARL LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
341 PM EDT WED SEP 1 2010

...LARGE AND POWERFUL CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE HURRICANE EARL
THREATENS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...

...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE OUTER BANKS THROUGH CRYSTAL COAST
INCLUDING THE ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUND AREAS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A HURRICANE WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
WASHINGTON...TYRRELL...MAINLAND DARE...BEAUFORT...MAINLAND HYDE...
CRAVEN...PAMLICO...CARTERET...OUTER BANKS DARE AND OUTER BANKS
HYDE....COUINTIES INCLUDING THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS FROM
NORTH OF SURF CITY TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT AND THE ALBEMARLE AND
PAMLICO SOUNDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR ONSLOW COUNTY.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 12 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 25.1N...LONGITUDE 72.1W. THIS WAS ABOUT 730 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BUXTON NC...OR ABOUT 720 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF MOREHEAD CITY NC. STORM MOTION WAS NW OR 320 DEGREES AT
17 MPH. STORM INTENSITY WAS 125 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
HURRICANE EARL IS FORECAST TO TRACK JUST OFFSHORE OF CAPE
HATTERAS. WHEN MAKING DECISIONS DO NOT FOCUS ON THE CENTER OF THE
TRACK. TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL EXTEND WELL
AWAY THE STORM WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT THREAT TO COASTAL
LOCATIONS IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. IN ADDITION...THE EXACT
FORECAST TRACK IS SUBJECT TO SHIFT. DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE
STORM AND PROXIMITY TO THE COAST...EVEN A SMALL CHANGE IN TRACK
COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT CONDITIONS IN EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA.

WINDS WILL INCREASE TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE BETWEEN 5 PM THURSDAY
AND MIDNIGHT FRIDAY ACROSS THE WARNED AREA...LOCATIONS ON THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WILL SEE SUSTAINED WINDS OVER 50 KT BY MIDNIGHT
WITH GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE LIKELY. HEAVY RAINFALL OF 3 TO
4 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE CENTER TRACK OF THE STORM
ALONG DOWNEAST CARTERET COUNTY AND THE OUTER BANKS. RAINFALL WILL
DECREASE TO AROUND AN INCH IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE WARNED
LOACTIONS.

SIGNIFICANT SWELLS WILL BRING AN HIGH RISK OF STRONG RIP CURRENTS
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. LARGE BREAKING WAVES ARE ALSO LIKELY
PEAKING BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS. STORM
SURGE OF 2 TO 4 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG AREA BEACHES AND COMBINED
WITH THE LARGE WAVE RUN UP WILL CAUSE SIGNIFCANT EROSION AND
OVERWASH ISSUES.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR THOSE UNDER A WARNING...NOW IS THE TIME TO RUSH TO COMPLETION
PREPARATIONS FOR THE PROTECTION OF LIFE AND PROPERTY. EVACUATE IF
DIRECTED TO DO SO BY LOCAL OFFICIALS...OR IF YOUR HOME IS
VULNERABLE TO HIGH WINDS OR COASTAL FLOODING. FOR INTERESTS AT
PORTS...DOCKS...AND MARINAS...URGENTLY COMPLETE PRESCRIBED
PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR EMERGENCY OPERATIONS PLAN FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONES. REGARDING ANY COASTAL WATERS UNDER A WARNING...
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT AND WELL SECURED. CLOSELY
MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS FOR
OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST. FOR ADDITIONAL PRECAUTIONARY AND PREPAREDNESS
INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE DETAILED RECOMMENDATIONS
RELATIVE TO YOUR LOCATION AS FURTHER DESCRIBED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY AROUND 6 PM...OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

NCZ045>047-080-081-093-094-021945-
/O.CON.KMHX.HU.W.1007.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
WASHINGTON-TYRRELL-MAINLAND DARE-BEAUFORT-MAINLAND HYDE-CRAVEN-
PAMLICO-
341 PM EDT WED SEP 1 2010

...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...
UPDATED STORM WIND PROBABILITIES.

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS  UP TO
21 PERCENT. ALSO...THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT
THIS TIME IS UP TO 71 PERCENT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
MOST LIKELY TO BEGIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
AS HURRICANE EARL APPROACHES THE COAST...THERE IS AN INCREASING
CHANCE FOR COMBINED STORM SURGE AND ASTRONOMICAL TIDE WATERS UP
TO 3 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL WITHIN AREAS CLOSER TO THE COAST...
RESULTING IN WORST CASE FLOOD INUNDATION UP TO 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE
GROUND LEVEL SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE SURGE ZONE.

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS  UP TO
29 PERCENT. ALSO...THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT
THIS TIME IS UP TO 79 PERCENT. THIS REPRESENTS A GENERAL
UPWARD TREND SINCE THE LAST FORECAST. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE MOST LIKELY TO BEGIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

...WINDS...
SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE BETWEEN 35 AND 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR
HURRICANE FORCE POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 17.

MINOR DAMAGE MAY OCCUR TO OLDER MOBILE HOMES. ISOLATED POWER
OUTAGES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
SOUNDSIDE STORM SURGES OF 3 TO 5 FEET ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
NEUSE RIVER IN CRAVEN COUNTY AND EASTERN PAMLICO COUNTY THURSDAY
NIGHT. THIS WOULD RESULT IN MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING. ALONG THE
PAMLICO RIVER IN INCLUDING THE WASHINGTON AND ENGLEHARD AREAS AND
EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN PAMLICO COUNTY 1 TO 2 FEET OF INUNDATION
IS POSSIBLE. ALONG THE WESTERN ALBEMARLE INCLUDING WASHINGTON AND
WESTERN TYRRELL COUNTIES AND IN THE PAMLICO SOUND FROM STUMPY
POINT THROUGH SOUTH THROUGH ENGELHARD AND WEST TOWARDS SWANQUARTER
1 TO 2 FEET OF INUNDATION IS POSSIBLE RESULTING IN MINOR FLOODING.

$$

NCZ098-021945-
/O.CON.KMHX.TR.W.1007.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
ONSLOW-
341 PM EDT WED SEP 1 2010

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...
UPDATED STORM WIND PROBABILITIES.

...WINDS...
AS HURRICANE EARL APPROACHES...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AROUND 7 PM THURSDAY NIGHT. SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY IN
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
BREAKING WAVES WILL BE BUILDING TO 6 TO 8 FEET TONIGHT. THE PEAK
IN BREAKING WAVES WILL COME LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
AT AROUND 10. STORM SURGE VALUES WILL ALSO PEAK AT THAT TIME
AROUND 2 FEET. THE SURGE COUPLED WITH HIGH WAVE RUN UP WILL CAUSE
SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION AND OVERWASH.

...COASTAL HAZARDS...
THERE WILL BE A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES.
DUE TO RIP CURRENTS AND VERY ROUGH SURF...BEACH GOERS ARE URGED TO STAY
OUT OF THE WATER.

$$

AMZ130-135-150-152-154-156-158-021915-
/O.CON.KMHX.HU.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
ALBEMARLE SOUND-PAMLICO SOUND-
S OF CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT TO OREGON INLET NC OUT 20 NM-
S OF OREGON INLET TO CAPE HATTERAS NC OUT 20 NM-
S OF CAPE HATTERAS TO OCRACOKE INLET NC OUT 20 NM
INCLUDING THE MONITOR NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
S OF OCRACOKE INLET TO CAPE LOOKOUT NC OUT 20 NM-
S OF CAPE LOOKOUT TO N OF SURF CITY NC OUT 20 NM-
341 PM EDT WED SEP 1 2010

...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...
UPDATED WIND PROBABILITIES.

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS  UP TO
37 PERCENT. ALSO...THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT
THIS TIME IS UP TO 85 PERCENT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE MOST
LIKELY TO BEGIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

...WINDS AND SEAS...
AS HURRICANE EARL APPROACHES...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL
PEAK ACROSS THE AREA AT 15 TO 25 FEET THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY.

$$

NCZ095-021945-
/O.CON.KMHX.HU.W.1007.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
CARTERET-
341 PM EDT WED SEP 1 2010

...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...
UPDATED WIND PROBABILITIES.

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS  UP TO
20 PERCENT. ALSO...THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT
THIS TIME IS UP TO 72 PERCENT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
MOST LIKELY TO BEGIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

...WINDS...
WINDS WILL BE HIGHEST ALONG DOWNEAST CARTERET COUNTY WITH WINDS
INCREASING TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE AS EARLY AS 5 TO 7 PM THURSDAY.

WESTERN CARTERET COUNTY WILL SEE SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 35 AND 45
MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR HURRICANE FORCE POSSIBLE. EASTERN CARTERET
COUNTY WILL SEE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 70
MPH POSSIBLE.

MINOR DAMAGE MAY OCCUR TO OLDER MOBILE HOMES. ISOLATED POWER
OUTAGES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...

BREAKING WAVES WILL BE BUILDING TO 8 TO 10 FEET TONIGHT. THE PEAK
IN BREAKING WAVES WILL COME LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
AT 10 TO 12 FEET. STORM SURGE VALUES WILL ALSO PEAK AT THAT TIME
AROUND 2 TO 4 FEET. THE SURGE COUPLED WITH HIGH WAVE RUN UP WILL
CAUSE SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION AND OVERWASH.

SOUNDSIDE STORM SURGES OF 3 TO 5 FEET ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND IN DOWNEAST CARTERET COUNTY INTO CORE SOUND

THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM COASTAL
FLOODING...POTENTIALLY HAVING A MODERATE IMPACT.

...COASTAL HAZARDS...
THERE WILL BE A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES.
DUE TO THE RIP CURRENTS AND VERY ROUGH SURF...BEACH GOERS ARE
URGED TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER.

$$

NCZ103-104-021945-
/O.CON.KMHX.HU.W.1007.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
OUTER BANKS DARE-OUTER BANKS HYDE-
341 PM EDT WED SEP 1 2010

...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...
UPDATED WIND PROBABILITIES AND ADDED EVACUATION AND CLOSURE
INFORMATION.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THERE IS A MANDATORY EVACUATION ORDER FOR VISITORS TO OCRACOKE.

THERE IS ALSO A MANDATORY EVACUATION ORDER IN PLACE FOR VISITORS
ON HATTERAS ISLAND. THIS ORDER IS FOR VISITORS ON HATTERAS ISLAND
AND DOES NOT APPLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF OREGON INLET. THE ORDER DOES
NOT INCLUDE THE TOWNS OF DUCK...KILL DEVIL HILLS...KITTY
HAWK...NAGS HEAD...SOUTHERN SHORES...ROANOKE ISLAND...OR THE
MAINLAND OF DARE COUNTY.

THE NATIONAL PARK SERVICE HAS ANNOUNCED THE UPCOMING CLOSURE OF
VISITOR CENTERS AND CAMPGROUNDS. THE OCRACOKE VISITOR CENTER WILL
CLOSE AT NOON WEDNESDAY. THE HATTERAS ISLAND...BODIE
ISLAND...WRIGHT BROTHERS...AND FORT RALEIGH VISITOR CENTERS WILL
CLOSE AT 5:00 PM WEDNESDAY. THE OCRACOKE...FRISCO...CAPE
POINT...AND OREGON INLET CAMPGROUNDS ARE SCHEDULED TO CLOSE AT
NOON WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY EXPECTED SURF CONDITIONS WILL CREATE
UNSAFE CONDITIONS ON BEACHES AND OFF-ROAD VEHICLE USE WILL BE
PROHIBITED UNTIL CONDITIONS ALLOW. IF EVACUATING...LEAVE AS SOON
AS POSSIBLE. GUARD AGAINST BEING STUCK OUT ON ROADWAYS WHEN
DANGEROUS WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS ARRIVE. AGAIN...DO NOT STAY IN A
MOBILE OR MANUFACTURED HOME. REMEMBER...PETS ARE NOT ALLOWED IN
MOST OFFICIAL SHELTERS...SO CHECK AHEAD WITH YOUR INTENDED
SHELTER.


&&

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS  UP TO
29 PERCENT. ALSO...THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT
THIS TIME IS UP TO 79 PERCENT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
MOST LIKELY TO BEGIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

...WINDS...
THE OUTER BANKS FROM CAPE HATTERAS SOUTH WILL SEE WINDS INCREASE
TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE AS EARLY AS 5 TO 7 PM THURSDAY. NORTH OF
CAPE HATTERAS THE INCREASE WILL BE BETWEEN 7 AND 9 PM THURSDAY.
SUSTAINED WINDS GREATER THAN 50 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE OUTER
BANKS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE OUTER BANKS INCLUDING OCRACOKE WILL SEE
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 55 TO 65 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 85 MPH AFTER
MIDNIGHT FRIDAY.

MINOR DAMAGE MAY OCCUR TO OLDER MOBILE HOMES AND POWER OUTAGES
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...

BREAKING WAVES WILL BE BUILDING TO 8 TO 10 FEET TONIGHT. THE PEAK
IN BREAKING WAVES WILL COME LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
AT 12 TO 15 FEET. STORM SURGE VALUES WILL ALSO PEAK AT THAT TIME
AROUND 2 TO 4 FEET. THE SURGE COUPLED WITH HIGH WAVE RUN UP WILL
CAUSE SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION AND OVERWASH. SECTIONS OF HIGHWAY
12 ALONG THE OUTER BANKS WILL LIKELY BE AFFECTED STARTING THURSDAY
NIGHT. HIGH TIDE AROUND 3 AM THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE PARTICULARLY
DANGEROUS.

SOUNDSIDE STORM SURGES OF 3 TO 5 FEET ARE POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH 3 TO 5 FEET EXPECTED SOUTH
OF OREGON INLET TO OCRACOKE AND 1 TO 3 FEET OF INUNDATION EXPECTED
NORTH OF OREGON INLET. PORTIONS OF HIGHWAY 12 WILL LIKELY BE
INUNDATED.

THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM COASTAL
FLOODING...POTENTIALLY HAVING A MODERATE IMPACT. THE CONCERN IS
FOR THE CHANCE OF MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING TO OCCUR IN AREAS
WITHIN THE SURGE ZONE...RESULTING IN A DAMAGING AND LIFE
THREATENING INUNDATION.

...COASTAL HAZARDS...
THERE WILL BE A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES.
DUE TO RIP CURRENTS AND VERY ROUGH SURF...BEACH GOERS ARE URGED
TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER.

$$

RSB



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