[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS82 KMHX 011832
HLSMHX

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE EARL LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
232 PM EDT WED SEP 1 2010

...LARGE AND POWERFUL CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE HURRICANE EARL
THREATENS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE OUTER BANKS THROUGH CRYSTAL COAST
INCLUDING THE ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUND AREAS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A HURRICANE WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
WASHINGTON...TYRRELL...MAINLAND DARE...BEAUFORT...MAINLAND HYDE...
CRAVEN...PAMLICO...CARTERET...OUTER BANKS DARE AND OUTER BANKS
HYDE....COUINTIES INCLUDING THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS FROM NORTH
OF SURF CITY TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT AND THE ALBEMARLE AND
PAMLICO SOUNDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR ONSLOW COUNTY.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 12 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 25.1N...LONGITUDE 72.1W. THIS WAS ABOUT 730 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BUXTON NC...OR ABOUT 720 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF MOREHEAD CITY NC. STORM MOTION WAS NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 17
MPH. STORM INTENSITY WAS 125 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
HURRICANE EARL IS FORECAST TO TRACK JUST OFFSHORE OF CAPE HATTERAS. WHEN
MAKING DECISIONS DO NOT FOCUS ON THE CENTER OF THE TRACK. TROPICAL
STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL EXTEND WELL AWAY THE STORM
WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT THREAT TO COASTAL LOCATIONS IN EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA. IN ADDITION...THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK IS SUBJECT
TO SHIFT. DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE STORM AND PROXIMITY TO THE
COAST...EVEN A SMALL CHANGE IN TRACK COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANTLY
DIFFERENT CONDITIONS IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

WINDS WILL INCREASE TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE BETWEEN 5 PM THURSDAY AND
MIDNIGHT FRIDAY ACROSS THE WARNED AREA...LOCATIONS ON THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WILL SEE SUSTAINED WINDS OVER 50 KT BY MIDNIGHT
WITH GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE LIKELY. HEAVY RAINFALL OF 3 TO 4
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE CENTER TRACK OF THE STORM ALONG
DOWNEAST CARTERET COUNTY AND THE OUTER BANKS. RAINFALL WILL
DECREASE TO AROUND AN INCH IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE WARNED
LOACTIONS.

SIGNIFICANT SWELLS WILL BRING AN HIGH RISK OF STRONG RIP CURRENTS
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. LARGE BREAKING WAVES ARE ALSO LIKELY PEAKING
BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS. STORM SURGE OF 2
TO 4 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG AREA BEACHES AND COMBINED WITH THE
LARGE WAVE RUN UP WILL CAUSE SIGNIFCANT EROSION AND OVERWASH ISSUES.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR THOSE UNDER A WARNING...NOW IS THE TIME TO RUSH TO COMPLETION
PREPARATIONS FOR THE PROTECTION OF LIFE AND PROPERTY. EVACUATE IF
DIRECTED TO DO SO BY LOCAL OFFICIALS...OR IF YOUR HOME IS
VULNERABLE TO HIGH WINDS OR COASTAL FLOODING. FOR INTERESTS AT
PORTS...DOCKS...AND MARINAS...URGENTLY COMPLETE PRESCRIBED
PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR EMERGENCY OPERATIONS PLAN FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONES. REGARDING ANY COASTAL WATERS UNDER A
WARNING...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT AND WELL SECURED.
CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS FOR
OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST. FOR ADDITIONAL PRECAUTIONARY AND PREPAREDNESS
INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE DETAILED RECOMMENDATIONS
RELATIVE TO YOUR LOCATION AS FURTHER DESCRIBED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.


&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY AROUND 6 PM...OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

NCZ045>047-080-081-093>095-103-104-021845-
/O.CON.KMHX.HU.W.1007.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
WASHINGTON-TYRRELL-MAINLAND DARE-BEAUFORT-MAINLAND HYDE-CRAVEN-
PAMLICO-CARTERET-OUTER BANKS DARE-OUTER BANKS HYDE-
232 PM EDT WED SEP 1 2010

...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...
HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT.

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS  UP TO
29 PERCENT. ALSO...THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT
THIS TIME IS UP TO 79 PERCENT. THIS REPRESENTS A GENERAL
UPWARD TREND SINCE THE LAST FORECAST. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE MOST LIKELY TO BEGIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

...WINDS...
WINDS WILL BE HIGHEST ALONG THE OUTER BANKS AND DOWNEAST CARTERET
COUNTY. COASTAL LOCATIONS FROM CAPE HATTERAS SOUTH WILL SEE WINDS
INCREASE TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE AS EARLY AS 5 TO 7 PM THURSDAY.
NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS THE INCREASE WILL BE BETWEEN 7 AND 9 PM
THURSDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS GREATER THAN 50 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
THE OUTER BANKS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE BETWEEN 35 AND 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR
HURRICANE FORCE POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 17. EASTERN
CARTERET COUNTY WILL SEE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 MPH WITH GUSTS
CLOSE TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE. THE OUTER BANKS INCLUDING OCRACOKE WILL
SEE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 55 TO 65 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 85 MPH
AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY.

MINOR DAMAGE MAY OCCUR TO OLDER MOBILE HOMES. ISOLATED POWER
OUTAGES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...

BREAKING WAVES WILL BE BUILDING TO 8 TO 10 FEET TONIGHT. THE PEAK
IN BREAKING WAVES WILL COME LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
AT 10 TO 15 FEET. STORM SURGE VALUES WILL ALSO PEAK AT THAT TIME
AROUND 2 TO 4 FEET. THE SURGE COUPLED WITH HIGH WAVE RUN UP WILL
CAUSE SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION AND OVERWASH. SECTIONS OF HIGHWAY
12 ALONG THE OUTER BANKS WILL LIKELY BE AFFECTED STARTING THURSDAY
NIGHT. HIGH TIDE AROUND 3 AM THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE PARTICULARLY
DANGEROUS.

SOUNDSIDE STORM SURGES OF 3 TO 5 FEET ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NEUSE
RIVER IN CRAVEN COUNTY...DOWNEAST CARTERET COUNTY INTO CORE SOUND
AND EASTERN PAMLICO COUNTY THURSDAY NIGHT. 1 TO 2 FEET IS POSSIBLE
ALONG THE PAMLICO RIVER IN WASHINGTON AND ENGLEHARD AREAS AND
EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN PAMLICO COUNTY. SOUNDSIDE FLOODING IS
ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE OUTER BANKS EASRLY FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH 3 TO 5 FEET EXPECTED SOUTH OF OREGON INLET
TO OCRACOKE AND 1 TO 3 FEET IS EXPECTED NORTH OF OREGON INLET.
PORTIONS OF HIGHWAY 12 INUNDATED. 1 TO 2 FEET OF INUNDATION IS
POSSIBLE FOR THE WESTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND IN WASHINGTON AND WESTERN
TYRRELL COUNTIES AND IN THE PAMLICO SOUND FROM STUMPY POINT
THROUGH SOUTH THROUGH ENGELHARD AND WEST TOWARDS SWANQUARTER.

THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM COASTAL
FLOODING...POTENTIALLY HAVING A MODERATE IMPACT. THE CONCERN IS
FOR THE CHANCE OF MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING TO OCCUR IN AREAS
WITHIN THE SURGE ZONE...RESULTING IN DAMAGING AND LIFE THREATENING
INUNDATION.

...COASTAL HAZARDS...
THERE WILL BE A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES.
BEACH GOERS ARE URGED TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER. BREAKING WAVES
WILL REACH UP TO 15 FEET ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS AT THE HEIGHT
OF THE STORM. MODERATE BEACH EROSION IS EXPECTED.

$$

NCZ098-021845-
/O.CON.KMHX.TR.W.1007.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
ONSLOW-
232 PM EDT WED SEP 1 2010

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT.

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS 3 TO
8 PERCENT. ALSO...THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT
THIS TIME IS UP TO 56 PERCENT.

...WINDS...
AS HURRICANE EARL APPROACHES...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AROUND 7 PM THURSDAY NIGHT. SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY IN
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
AS HURRICANE EARL APPROACHES THE COAST...THERE IS AN INCREASING
CHANCE FOR COMBINED STORM SURGE AND ASTRONOMICAL TIDE WATERS UP
TO 2 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL WITHIN AREAS CLOSER TO THE COAST...
RESULTING IN WORST CASE FLOOD INUNDATION UP TO 2 FEET ABOVE
GROUND LEVEL SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE SURGE ZONE.


...COASTAL HAZARDS...
THERE WILL BE A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES.
BEACH GOERS ARE URGED TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER. BREAKING WAVES
WILL REACH UP TO 10 FEET ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS AT THE HEIGHT
OF THE STORM. MINOR TO MODERATE BEACH EROSION IS EXPECTED.

$$

AMZ130-135-150-152-154-156-158-021845-
/O.CON.KMHX.HU.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
ALBEMARLE SOUND-PAMLICO SOUND-
S OF CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT TO OREGON INLET NC OUT 20 NM-
S OF OREGON INLET TO CAPE HATTERAS NC OUT 20 NM-
S OF CAPE HATTERAS TO OCRACOKE INLET NC OUT 20 NM
INCLUDING THE MONITOR NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
S OF OCRACOKE INLET TO CAPE LOOKOUT NC OUT 20 NM-
S OF CAPE LOOKOUT TO N OF SURF CITY NC OUT 20 NM-
232 PM EDT WED SEP 1 2010

...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...
UPDATED INFORMATION ON HURRICANE WARNING.

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS  UP TO
37 PERCENT. ALSO...THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT
THIS TIME IS UP TO 85 PERCENT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
MOST LIKELY TO BEGIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

...WINDS AND SEAS...
AS HURRICANE EARL APPROACHES...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL
PEAK ACROSS THE AREA AT 15 TO 25 FEET THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY.

$$

RSB



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