[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011755
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED SEP 01 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL AT 01/1800 UTC IS NEAR 25.7N
72.7W...OR ABOUT 275 NM TO THE EAST OF ABACO ISLAND IN THE
BAHAMAS...MOVING NORTHWESTWARD 15 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 941 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
ARE 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE
EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF ELEVATED VALUES OF MOISTURE NOTED ON
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 24N TO 28N BETWEEN 70W AND 75W. PLEASE READ
THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC AND THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FIONA AT 01/1800 UTC IS NEAR 19.3N
62.2W...OR ABOUT 90 NM TO THE NORTHEAST OF ANGUILLA...MOVING
NORTHWESTWARD 15 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1001 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 50 KT WITH GUSTS
TO 60 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 16N TO
21N BETWEEN 60W AND 64W. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC AND THE
PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC MENTIONED ON
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION WAS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE AT
1500 UTC...LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 35.8W...MOVING WEST AT 13 KT. THE
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. THIS SYSTEM
IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF ELEVATED MOISTURE VALUES NOTED IN
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 35W AND 40W. PLEASE READ
THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

NO OTHER TROPICAL WAVES ARE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN AT THIS TIME.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM WEST AFRICA OVER GUINEA NEAR
10N14W WESTWARD ALONG 9N19W TO 11N24W...RESUMING SW OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION NINE NEAR 8N37W CONTINUING W ALONG 8N43W TO 9N50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS OF WEST AFRICA E OF 23W FROM 6N TO 18N. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
40W AND 45W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS COMBINED WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW
ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT INLAND OVER SE TEXAS AND AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BETWEEN THESE
TWO FEATURES IS GENERATING DIFFLUENCE FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND N CENTRAL GULF...SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN W OF 84W...WITH
THE MOST CONVECTIVE AREA FOCUSED FROM 21N TO 30N BETWEEN 86W AND
94W. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BRING DRY AIR ALOFT TO THE
NORTHERN GULF OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS BRINGING A BREAK TO
THE NORTHERN GULF N OF 27N...WHILE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
LINGER ELSEWHERE W OF 85W OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AFFECTING
THE CENTRAL AND W GULF...AND THE COASTAL WATERS SURROUNDING THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA N OF 20N.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
SFC OBSERVATIONS COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS
SHOW CONVERGENCE FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL BASIN...SUPPORTED BY AN
ELONGATED AREA OF UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW/TROUGH OVER THE SAME
AREA. THIS SCENARIO IS PRODUCING SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL BASIN BETWEEN 67W AND
72W. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THE FAR NE CARIBBEAN N OF 16N E OF 64W IS BEING
IMPACTED BY THE OUTER BANDS OF CONVECTION GENERATED BY TROPICAL
STORM FIONA. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DRAG CONVECTION TO THE
NE BASIN OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO OVER THE FAR SW BASIN S OF
12N W OF 75W...DUE TO CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE ITCZ EXTENDING
ACROSS PANAMA TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER
THE THE FAR NW BASIN N OF 19N W OF 83W...AFFECTING MOSTLY THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL...EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
HURRICANE EARL AND TROPICAL STORM FIONA ARE THE MAIN FEATURES OF
CONCERN OVER THE WESTERN ATLC W OF 60W. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES
ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE ATLC E OF 60W N OF 17N...AROUND A 1021 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 28N50W AND ANOTHER 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 33N28W. DRY
SAHARAN AIR ALOFT IS ALSO NOTED ON SATELLITE VISIBLE E OF 50W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA




This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net