[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 011154
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED SEP 01 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL AT 01/1200 UTC IS NEAR 24.5N
71.6W...OR ABOUT 180 NM TO THE EAST OF SAN SALVADOR IN THE
BAHAMAS...MOVING NORTHWESTWARD 14 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 943 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
ARE 111 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC
AND THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 23N
TO 25N BETWEEN 70W AND 72W. OTHER RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 20N TO 28N BETWEEN 60W AND 74W.

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FIONA AT 01/1200 UTC IS NEAR 18.2N
60.9W...OR ABOUT 70 NM TO THE NORTHEAST OF BARBUDA...MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 13 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 998 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 50 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 60 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC AND THE
PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 12N NEAR BARBADOS
TO 18N NEAR ANGUILLA AND BARBUDA BETWEEN 59W AND 63W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W/34W TO THE SOUTH
OF 18N MOVING WESTWARD 15 KT. A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 12N. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 8N TO 9N BETWEEN 37W AND 40W...AND FROM 10N TO 13N
BETWEEN 34W AND 36W. OTHER RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 6N TO 8N
BETWEEN 40W AND 43W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

NO OTHER TROPICAL WAVES ARE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM SENEGAL NEAR 16N16W TO 13N31W...9N35W TO 9N50W. SCATTERED
STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 8N TO 15N BETWEEN
AFRICA AND 20W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 6N TO 8N
BETWEEN 20W AND 25W...AND WITHIN 60 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF 7N42W 9N52W 12N57W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW FROM TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...AND ALABAMA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
TO THE EAST OF 95W. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CENTER IS IN MEXICO
NEAR 23N105W. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS MOVING WESTWARD OR
NORTHWESTWARD FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...
ON TOP OF THE STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE JUST
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO FROM
18N TO 19N BETWEEN 96W AND 97W. ISOLATED RAINSHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE SPREAD ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WITH
THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND TROUGH.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER HAS MOVED INTO THE
GULF OF HONDURAS. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE AREA. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF
16N TO THE WEST OF 80W. A BROAD SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL WATERS INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW ALSO COVERS THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN A FEW
CLUSTERS TO THE SOUTH OF 14N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. HURRICANE EARL
HAS BEEN PULLING AWAY FROM PUERTO RICO. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
THAT ACCOMPANY TROPICAL STORM FIONA ARE ON TOP OF THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS...FROM 12N NEAR BARBADOS TO 18N NEAR
ANGUILLA AND BARBUDA BETWEEN 59W AND 63W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE AREA THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 60W IS COVERED BY ANYTHING THAT
IS RELATED TO HURRICANE EARL. A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 34N44W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
TO 27N50W. RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 29N TO 31N BETWEEN 42W AND 47W.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ABOUT 600 NM TO THE EAST OF THE
34N44W 27N50W TROUGH. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE DISSIPATING
COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 33N37W TO 31N43W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES AROUND A RIDGE THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N32W TO A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N50W...
TO A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 34N65W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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