[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 312339
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN OCT 31 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TOMAS AT 31/2100 UTC IS NEAR 14.4N
64.9W...MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. TOMAS IS ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM W OF
ST. LUCIA OR ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM SSE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. PLEASE READ
THE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
TOMAS HAS WEAKENED RECENTLY AS REPORTED BY AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND IS BARELY A HURRICANE. THIS IS DUE
TO 20-25 KT SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND SOME MID-LEVEL DRY AIR.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 61W-65W.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ IS ANALYZED FROM THE NORTHERN COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR
6N10W TO 5N20W 9N28W 8N40W 9N47W TO E VENEZUELA NEAR 9N60W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER WEST
AFRICA FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 10W-13W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED
IN THE ITCZ FROM 12N26W TO 5N30W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 24W-30W. A SECOND EMBEDDED
SURFACE TROUGH IS FROM 12N45W TO 5N48W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 44W-47W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF SOUTH AMERICA FROM 6N-10N
BETWEEN 52W-57W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR
33N77W PRODUCING 5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW OVER N
FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. MOSTLY 5KT E TO SE WINDS ARE
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER S FLORIDA S OF 26N. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF N OF 25N. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N87W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM
LOUISIANA TO THE SOUTH TEXAS COAST IN 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION
AND STRONG WINDS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MAIN FEATURE OF CONCERN IS HURRICANE TOMAS OVER THE LESSER
ANTILLES MOVING W AND FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
SHORTLY. CONVECTION IS MOSTLY NE OF THE CENTER OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION ABOVE. THE RADAR FROM
PUERTO RICO SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN
64W-69W. FURTHER S OVER INLAND VENEZUELA SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 61W-68W. ELSEWHERE...A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM S OF JAMAICA AT 16N79W TO PANAMA AT
8N80W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-17N
BETWEEN 77W-82W. MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE INLAND OVER N
COLOMBIA...PANAMA...COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA...AND E HONDURAS. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED E OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 12N56W PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT SHEAR OVER
TOMAS. EXPECT TOMAS TO MOVE W AND BE IN 24 HOURS HALF WAY
BETWEEN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND VENEZUELA ALONG 68W. ALSO
EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWERS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM
32N51W TO 27N60W. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N49W TO
25N55W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH. A 1029
MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE AZORES NEAR 38N24W PRODUCING FAIR
WEATHER. EXPECT THE TWO SURFACE TROUGHS IN THE TROPICS TO MOVE W
AT 15 KT WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA




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