[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 311802
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN OCT 31 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TOMAS AT 31/1500 UTC IS NEAR 14.0N
63.7W...MOVING WNW NEAR 8 KT. TOMAS IS ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM W
OF ST. LUCIA AND ABOUT 345 MI...550 KM SSE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO
RICO. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 986 MB. THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS MODERATE/SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION
COVERS FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN 59W AND 64W...INCLUDING MOST OF
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS S OF 17N.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ IS ANALYZED FROM THE SOUTHERN COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR
5N9W WESTWARD ALONG 4N16W TO 8N25W...RESUMING ALONG 8N31W 6N36W
7N42W...RESUMING AGAIN ALONG 7N48W TO 10N55W. A SURFACE TROUGH
IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ...ANALYZED FROM 12N25W TO 6N29W.
SCATTERED WEAK TO ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N TO 16N
BETWEEN 23W AND 32W. A SECOND EMBEDDED SURFACE TROUGH IS
ANALYZED FROM 11N43W TO 6N47W. SCATTERED WEAK TO ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N TO 12N BETWEEN 42W AND 46W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 140
NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS E OF 23W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACCOMPANIED BY DRY AIR AND STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE UPPER RIDGE
SUPPORTS A SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE FAR W ATLC AND SE UNITED
STATES. THIS PATTERN IS PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
ANTI-CYCLONIC WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
NOTED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND WESTERN GULF. THESE SHOWERS
ARE MOST LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE
ADVECTING INTO THIS PORTION OF THE BASIN. EXPECT FAIR CONDITIONS
TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE NE
GULF.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MAIN FEATURE OF CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON IS HURRICANE TOMAS
AFFECTING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND LESSER ANTILLES WITH STRONG
WINDS AND CONVECTION. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE
DETAILS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL BASIN BETWEEN 65W
AND 75W ASSOCIATED TO THE OUTER BANDS OF TOMAS. SIMILAR ACTIVITY
IS LOCATED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN BASIN S OF 17N BETWEEN 75W AND
84W...ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS ANALYZED FROM 15N79W
TO 9N89W. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALONG WITH ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW
COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN E OF 80W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN ENHANCING AN AREA OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITHIN 100 NM OFF THE COAST OF HONDURAS AND BELIZE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS OVER THE NW ATLC BASIN...SUPPORTING A
COLD FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC. THIS FRONT
ENTERS OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION THROUGH 32N51W AND CONTINUES SW TO
30N56W...BECOMING A WEAK STATIONARY FROM THIS POINT TO THE WEST
ATLC ALONG 28N65W 28N73W. SCATTERED WEAK SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30
NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. A SURFACE RIDGE IS
BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR
31N63W. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY SURFACE
RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH NEAR 33N35W SUPPORTING FAIR
WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA



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