[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 310602
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN OCT 31 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TOMAS AT 31/0600 UTC IS NEAR 13.8N
62.4W...MOVING WNW NEAR 7 KT. TOMAS IS ABOUT 80 NM WNW OF ST.
VINCENT...AND ABOUT 83 NM W OF ST. LUCIA. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS
85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS IN AN OUTER RAINBAND E OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 57W-60W...AND NEAR THE
STORM CENTER FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 61W-64W. NUMEROUS
MODERATE/SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 9N-18N
BETWEEN 56W-61W...AND FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN 61W-64W. EVEN THOUGH
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER IMPACTING THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS...HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO FALL OVER THIS AREA.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N13W 9N26W 6N34W 8N42W 6N53W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-5N
BETWEEN 13W-19W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS ALONG 14N26W TO 4N27W ENHANCING SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN
24W-28W...AND FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 28W-32W. A SECOND SURFACE
TROUGH IS ALONG 11N42W TO 3N42W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 34W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACCOMPANIED BY DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE IS
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDING FROM GEORGIA TO THE SW
CARIBBEAN ACROSS MEXICO AND INTO THE E PACIFIC. THE UPPER RIDGE
SUPPORTS A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH OFF THE
COAST OF S CAROLINA. THIS PATTERN IS PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS
AND LIGHT ANTI-CYCLONIC WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN. A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE WRN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
EXPECT FAIR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE NE GULF.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
HURRICANE TOMAS CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE FAR ERN CARIBBEAN
BRINGING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS TO THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALONG WITH ANTI-CYCLONIC OUTFLOW FROM TOMAS
COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN E OF 80W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DIGS DOWN ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM THE WRN ATLC. THIS UPPER
TROUGH IS ACCOMPANIED BY DRY AIR ALOFT PROVIDING FAIR SURFACE
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN W OF TOMAS. MOIST
SWLY FLOW AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BETWEEN THIS UPPER TROUGH AND THE
UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE BASIN ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR
AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 74W-82W.
EXPECT MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE WRN CARIBBEAN WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE BASIN.
THE ERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HURRICANE TOMAS
AS IT TRACKS WWD

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE SW N ATLC ENTERING THE
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N56W CONTINUING TOWARDS THE WSW TO NEAR
28N67W BECOMING STATIONARY TO NEAR 26N74W. THE FRONT IS
SUPPORTED BY A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH COVERING THE WRN ATLC.
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM BEHIND THE
FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT ANCHORED
BY A PAIR OF 1022 MB AND 1021 MB HIGHS OFF THE COAST OF S
CAROLINA NEAR 32N74W AND 33N68W RESPECTIVELY. THE SURFACE RIDGE
IS PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BASIN BEHIND THE FRONT.
A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 32N51W TO 27N57W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF THE TROUGH N OF 27N
BETWEEN 48W-51W. FARTHER E...SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ANCHORED
BY A 1028 MB HIGH SW OF THE AZORES ISLANDS NEAR 34N32W. THE
RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED S OF THE
AZORES NEAR 33N30W. TO THE S...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE
AREA S OF 30N E OF 45W ENHANCING SOME OF THE CONVECTION ALONG
THE ITCZ.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON




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