[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 310005
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT OCT 30 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TOMAS AT 31/0000 UTC IS NEAR 13.5N
61.7W...MOVING WNW NEAR 9 KT. TOMAS IS ABOUT 40 MI...70 KM NW OF
ST. VINCENT OR ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM WSW OF ST. LUCIA. THE
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. PLEASE READ
THE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 60W-63W...AND
FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 57W-60W. IN ADDITION SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-17N BETWEEN 56W-64W. THE EYE OF THE
HURRICANE IS MOVING AWAY FROM THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HOWEVER MUCH
MORE HEAVY CONVECTION IS APPROACHING WITH THE THREAT OF
ADDITIONAL FLOODING.

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SHARY AT 30/2100 UTC IS NEAR 39.2N
50.9W...OR ABOUT 530 MI...855 KM SSE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND.
SHARY IS MOVING NE AT 42 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 991 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 60 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. PLEASE READ THE LAST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
SHARY IS RACING NE AND IS IN THE PROCESS OF MERGING WITH A COLD
FRONT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
29N-35N BETWEEN 47W-50W.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ IS ANALYZED FROM SIERRA LEONE NEAR 7N13W TO 6N17W 9N22W
6N35W 9N41W TO FRENCH GUIANA NEAR 5N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER MOST OF SIERRA LEONE. A SURFACE TROUGH
IS JUST S OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS FROM 15N23W TO 5N24W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-13N BETWEEN 21W-27W. A
SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 41W FROM 11N40W TO 4N41W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 37W-44W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AT 2100 UTC...A 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH
CAROLINA NEAR 33N77W PRODUCING 10 KT EASTERLY RETURN FLOW OVER
FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. MOSTLY 5-10 KT E TO SE WINDS
ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. AN AREA OF BROKEN TO
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS IS OVER THE W GULF
FROM 21N-26N BETWEEN 90W-95W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 19N-21N BETWEEN 89W-91W.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE W
GULF NEAR 20N96W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E GULF E OF
90W WITH AXIS ALONG 80W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE
GULF. EXPECT MORE SHOWERS OVER THE SW GULF OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MAIN FEATURE OF CONCERN IS HURRICANE TOMAS OVER THE LESSER
ANTILLES MOVING WNW AND FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE
WITHIN 5 DAYS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN...SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN BASIN
S OF 13N W OF 70W ASSOCIATED WITH AN EXTENSION OF THE ITCZ.
EXPECT TOMAS TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AND BE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWERS OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N57W TO 27N70W.
A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
NEAR 25N76W. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N54W TO 23N60W
TO N OF PUERTO RICO AT 20N65W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60
NM OF THE TROUGH N OF 27N. A 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E
ATLANTIC NEAR 33N32W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

FORMOSA





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