[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290613 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI OCT 29 2010

...CORRECTION TO POSITION OF T.S. SHARY

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE 1009 MB SURFACE LOW WAS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM SHARY AT
29/0300 UTC. TROPICAL STORM SHARY IS CENTERED NEAR 28.1N 64.5W
OR ABOUT ABOUT 280 NM S OF BERMUDA AT 29/0600 UTC MOVING NW AT
20 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUST TO 45 KT. SEE THE LATEST
NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRECEDING THE LOW
LEVEL CENTER WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 31N61W TO 24N71W AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 25N50W TO 30N60W.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 15N48W THROUGH A 1006 MB SURFACE
LOW NEAR 8N52W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2N53W MOVING
WNW 15-20 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS AS A BROAD CYCLONIC PERTURBATION
WITH ABUNDANCE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE. A LARGE UPPER HIGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE IS GIVING THE AREA GOOD OUTFLOW. LARGE
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG COVER THE AREA WITHIN 240
NM E OF THE WAVE AXIS BETWEEN 6N-13N AND WITHIN 200 NM W OF THE
WAVE AXIS BETWEEN 8N-13N WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION DOTTING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
FROM 4N-16N BETWEEN 45W-58W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS
TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...VENEZUELA...AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
GUYANA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR
26N42W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE E OF
THE LOW FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 37W-41W. UPPER LEVEL WINDS HAVE
BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THEREFORE...THERE
IS NOW A LOW CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT AND WILL BE REMOVED FROM THE
SPECIAL FEATURES.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED 7N19W 6N25W 7N33W 6N41W 8N49W. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OVER THE W AFRICA COAST NEAR 14N16W
ALONG 10N17W TO 7N19W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
9N-12N E OF 17W TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
ITCZ/SURFACE TROUGH BETWEEN 17W-25W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 25W-37W AND WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE
FROM 7N38W TO 10N45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E HALF OF THE US SUPPORTING A COLD
FRONT THAT ENTERS THE GULF OVER APALACHEE BAY FLORIDA SW ALONG
26N90W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO JUST S OF TAMPICO. A SURFACE TROUGH
IS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH A SECOND MORE SIGNIFICANT
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 24N93W INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO
THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 18N94W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS COVERS THE SW GULF S OF 25N W OF 89W WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT E OF 89W. FAIR
CONDITIONS REMAIN ACROSS THE SE GULF AND NW OF THE FRONT
TONIGHT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SW GULF LATER
THIS MORNING AS THE FRONT MOVES QUICKLY SE BRINGING SHOWER/
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE SW GULF LATER TODAY AND EXTENDING
THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY FRI
NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LOW CENTERED N OF HISPANIOLA COVERS THE CARIBBEAN WITH
BROAD SCALE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AND IS MOVING A DRY STABLE
AIRMASS ALOFT ACROSS THE THE N PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN. A SWATH
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN PRODUCING
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120
NM OF LINE FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS/PUERTO RICO NEAR 18N65W ALONG
15N72W 15N80W TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 21N86W. THE NEXT BIG
WEATHER MAKER FOR THE CARIBBEAN IS THE TROPICAL WAVE DISCUSSED
IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. SHOWERS COULD REACH THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS LATER TODAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
TROPICAL STORM SHARY...THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL
ATLC...THE 1010 MB SURFACE LOW IN THE CENTRAL ATLC ARE DISCUSSED
IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. A BROAD UPPER LOW COVERS THE
W/CENTRAL ATLC AND THE CARIBBEAN CENTERED NE OF THE TURKS AND
CAICOS NEAR 24N69W PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR THE W ATLC
W OF A LINE FROM MELBOURNE FLORIDA TO BEYOND 32N76W WHICH ARE
PRECEDING THE FRONT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. SWATH OF DRY STABLE
AIR ALOFT IS TO W OF THE TROPICAL STORM SHARY COVERING THE W
ATLC WITHIN 200 NM OF LINE FROM BEYOND 32N72W TO OVER CUBA NEAR
23N79W AND IS BEING DRAWN NE ACROSS SHARY. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE
DOMINATES THE ATLC MAINLY N OF 20N E OF 60W WITH A WEAKNESS NEAR
43W...SURROUNDING THE 1010 MB LOW IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES...AND
ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA W OF
THE AZORES.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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